Soaring conditions week of Nov 5th

[gavatron]

See Flight Reports in Reply's below for:
[Tuesday] [Wednesday] [Thursday] [Friday]

Hey Sundowner,

A couple of Marshall pilots looking to fly Santa Barbara this week if the conditions look good.
What's your take on it?

Cheers,

-Gavin

[sd]

Monday night look at mid-week
Tuesday looks like the best day, but confidence in the long-range outlook is poor.

On Tuesday, Ojai has the better lapse rate (as is typical), but with flow from the west it might be a better call to try to get to Ojai from SB. The lapse rate in SB is weaker but respectable above 3K. Cloudbase in SB also looks lower, maybe 4K early, but higher later in the day. Cloudbase in Ojai looks almost double, 8 or 9K after noon, so if you can get to Ojai it should be a fast trip through the valley. If you can get over Casitas Pass, then Fillmore should be within easy reach and Fillmore is looking good also with a good lapse rate above 5 or 6K. Looks like SB could see increasing clouds late in the day?, but Ojai and Fillmore are dryer. The wind looks nice. A light tailwind from the west, but only mid-single digits with some local stronger draw in places.

After Tuesday, conditions deteriorate through the week for XC flying with a weaker lapse rate and more wind at the higher altitudes.

On Wednesday, SB is showing an inversion above 2500 to 3K that relaxes some in the afternoon, but it doesn’t look promising for anything above 2500, and you can’t go very far if the top of the lift is below 3K, unless you are flying low stuff like the Training Hill or the Rock. If you do launch locally in SB on Wednesday, the Rock and the Bypass should work. The Skyport and EJ will likely be launchable, but not very soarable so you will end up down low anyway.

With a poor lapse rate above 2500, Ojai looks like it’s not worth the drive Wednesday through Friday, and you can’t likely get there from SB.

On Thursday, the inversion is SB is higher, maybe 6K. The lower level isn’t inverted, but the lapse rate below 3 or 4K looks weak. A little better above 5K with a sharp inversion around 6K. There is more wind up high on Thursday, but with the weak lapse rate the wind might not pull down much?

Friday is pretty far out and looking possibly windy from the north. The local cliffs look weak Tuesday through Thursday, and high tide is prime time midday. Friday might work on the local cliffs Friday if the forecasted wind associated with building high pressure metalizes.

This coming weekend might offer a little clearing offshore flow on Saturday, but it’s pretty far out. Gradients are currently forecasted to be neutral on Sunday, but will need to look at the lapse rate.

Bottom line… Fly Tuesday. If you can get over Casitas Pass you should make Fillmore and possibly go further. Consider the Training Hill on Wednesday and Thursday.

I’m out of town Thursday and Friday, so unfortunately, I’ll miss Mitch’s presentation at the club meeting.

[bb_secretary]

Tuesday Reports
Tuesday was dryer than I expected, Otherwise, SB conditions seemed to align with expectations base on Pilot reports below copied from the SBSA chat box. No reports from Ojai?

Posted by Timmaaayyy at 7:30 am
9:30 Parma?
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Posted by Jason Lombard at 7:33 & 7:58 am
I’ll bring the Van. / Eagle Van at 9:30
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Posted by Leon at 10:48 am
8-10 S strong thermals at EJ. Everybody is launching. Neal is off on a tandem. Cracka and Jesse and one other are off on the 10:30 window. Half a dozen more getting ready to launch.
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Posted by Cort Flinchbaugh at 11:23 am
I see a couple of guys sharing a thermal above Montecito Peak
Posted by Cort Flinchbaugh at 11:26 am
And a hang dangler about 500 over the rnr going up fast
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Posted by Leon at 12:20 pm
Somewhere in Carp. Safe.
Posted by Leon at 12:30 pm
Landed at El Carro Park 5305 foothill road if anybody is near by heading back to Parma.
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Posted by Andrew Berkley at 1:26 pm
Nice day! I landed up in the mountains at the pass to Ojai. hiking out. Nice flying with y'all!
Posted by Andrew Berkley at 4:47 pm
I got back to civilization in case anyone was worried about zombie cows getting me on the way back.
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Posted by Chris Clontz at 6:13 pm
Thanks Jason for organizing the van to EJ! Timmaay and I got to 5k tops downrange near the power lines. Very little wind at altitude made for a nice out and back journey before work.

Photo by Chris Clontz from Montecito Peak of Tim Barker?

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Posted by Timmaaayyy at 6:56 pm
Killer day! Tagged the powerlines, turned around tagged VOR and slid back to Parma in the west wind. Parma was super east when I️ landed, which made it interesting. Topped 5000 at La Cumbre going West bound. But then the west finally came through and I️ could get over 3600.

[bb_secretary]

Didn’t look at a forecast update on Wednesday, but I did look out the window, and it appeared much better than was forecasted on Monday. Rather than an inversion at 2500 (Monday’s forecast for Wednesday) with a weak lapse rate above, there was a cloud-street over the range behind Carpinteria and nice clouds over the Watershed Divide.
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Pilot Reports copied from the SBSA Chat Box

Posted by Mark Fisher at 2:26 pm
I made the task but it took me an hr. :confused:, got stuck at thermal factory and then it took me awhile to get to Romero. Made it to Padero with Pete, Andrew and Hogie.
Lift up to 4K
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Posted by Andrew Byron at 2:39 pm
As Jason would say, powder day in the air! Tops around 4800 with juicy climbs in and around the clouds. Thermals felt very defined and lots of draw/push between them. Mark explored the back of the rack, Pete and Jason lead the charge down range. Hogie spent some time in the white room. Another fun day in SB!
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Posted by Peter Weldon at 3:05 pm
Too light at Wilcox
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Posted by David Hogan at 3:14 pm
Almost doable if it wasn't so cross.
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Posted by Jason Lombard at 8:02 pm
Beautiful 10:30 am boaty soaring session with Neal on Le Cumbre to get the day started before it turned on. Rad day. Blessed to be here with y’all again.

[bb_secretary]

The day had thick low clouds building on the south facing mountains, but good lift out front and the training hill also. Multiple pilots launched from The Bypass and had good flights. Drew Quine took the day with a super buoyant glide across town to the beach (see his Doarama link below).
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Pilot Reports copied from the SBSA Chat Box

Posted by Cort Flinchbaugh at 11:10 am
Looks like the mountains cloud it in, but just drove by the T Hill, looks like it's going off, will Cox too
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Posted by Shay Munroe at 12:39 pm
Not much lift out there in them mountains. Everyone landed safely though. Clouds made it interesting. Woo wee!
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Posted by Cracka at 4:16 pm
Awesome, fired up crew today! Everyone hucked off perfectly at the bypass for some amazing eye candy. Drew and Hoagie stayed glued to cloudbase and Drew found a magic line almost out to the training hill then downwind to the beach. Flight of the day, perfectly done Drew!!!
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Posted by Drew Quine at 4:28 pm
Yeeeew thanks Aaron, good flying with you guys today. I finally figured out doarama if anyone wants to check it out. Think I could have made it to the training hill but there was a headwind and it would have been small kine sketchy
http://doarama.com/view/1731125
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Looking SE at the Rock by Cracka

Looking SW across the Monastery Tear Drop by Cracka

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Looking south across Polo Ridge by Peter Weldon

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Trainin hill was crackin yesrerday too! / Looking SW from Elings by Cracka

[bb_secretary]

Friday was not like the Monday models were projecting for Friday…
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Friday Reports copied from the SBSA Chat Box

Posted by Mitch Riley Reply at 6:20 am
Good morning! Eagle Van 9:30 Parma, LZ walk 9am
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Skyport unload posted by Andrew Byron at 10:05 am

Posted by Andrew Byron at 10:07 am
It's lifting

Andrew Byron at 12:21pm
Bates is on
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Posted by Cracka at: 12:24 pm
Super fun low cb day! 3 of us headed west and derek and i flushed at westbowl and timmayyy got the flight tagging vor then flushing near inspiration point on way back. We are at cocapah if anyone is in the area for a boost

Looking South from the AF / Posted by Cracka

Looking East past Parkers by Cracka

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View from Rincon Mt looking WSW taken at 12:40 by Black Ops

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Timmaaayyy at 12:45
So much fun. I’d go again if I️ had time. Clouds are breaking up on the west side of the course. I️ bet it’s going to get really good for a while.
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Skyport / Posted by Jamie at 12:53

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Posted by Mitch Riley Reply at 2:31 pm
Fun round with the Eagle Van. Some got off, and some of us waited in cloud. Fun was had by all
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Looking north from the AF by Irene Revenko