Mid May Heat Wave

[sd]

Link to SD's log for Thursday, 5/15/2014
http://paraglide.net/log/14/05-15/1_skyport_to_painted_cave_to_rancho_sespe.htm
about 62 miles around one turn point / article, weather, maps, and photos
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Wednesday night update for Thursday

Not sure if Eagle will be running a bus. I'm intending to catch a ride to SB in the morning with Pam on her way to work, then will likely thumb up to launch. Ron Faoro may be on board early, and Aaron will be along later after his 10:30 meeting. HG pilots have been reporting good altitude locally, getting into the mid 5s and flying late into the afternoon (5 PM).

The forecast is on track for the east to clock around and blow from the west Thursday afternoon. It blew offshore Santa Anna (from the east) almost all day down the Santa Clara today (Wednesday). It did finally come up the river a ways at the end of the day with the Oxnard airport reporting stiff onshore around 3 PM, but Santa Paula was offshore until after 5:30. Fillmore and Piru blew down river past sunset. Expect the sea breeze to plow up the river much earlier tomorrow (Thursday). Winds aloft start out from the east but clock around and blow from the west at all locations in the afternoon.

Wednesday was west down low on the South Coast, but it was east up higher (above 6K). Wednesday's lapse rate was ballistic. Thursday's lapse rate still looks ok in SB and strong in Ojai. Max temperatures topping 100 degrees F are actually forecasted to be higher in Ojai than the high desert by 5 or 6 degrees F.

Plan to launch as early as possible (10:30 to 11:15ish?) and try and get through Casitas Pass before the west sweeps through. My be able to connect OTB toward Old Man Mountain from Divide, but there is some north and the lapse rate isn't as good above 9K until later in the day (the top of the lift over Pine does approach 11K later in the afternoon and 13K over Lockwood). A middle route may work better. Perhaps committing back behind the Topa Bluffs past Hines Peak toward Devils Heart, but that may be more of a Dave Turner move because if it doesn't work it is a 2 or 3 day hike to get out, which is beyond my physical capabilities. Top of the lift over the Topa Bluffs looks like 8 or 9K late in the day.
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Mid May Heat Wave
Tuesday night perception of the next few days...

Wednesday looks like the best lapse rate, but the east wind Wednesday seems to be persistent. It will likely work ok in SB, switching from the west later in the afternoon, but it may be problematic going east against a headwind that increases toward the east end of the course.

Thursday has a weaker lapse rate, but it is also forecast to be a switch day with the sea breeze pulling up river later in the afternoon. I suspect the best potential might be to launch from Chiefs early for an initial west bound leg, but I don't think the road will be open. It's too hot to hike the Nuthouse and the Nut won't work as early as Chiefs. If you are going to launch later you might as well start from SB and skip the hike. I suspect it should be soarable by 11, so a short west bound leg looks like a possibility before the west pushes through. Going OTB around Divide may be possible, but not sure if the altitude will be good enough to get back to Pine. You may be able to launch from Pine on Thursday, but I suspect it will work on the front range and we have all summer to fly Pine. I recommend taking advantage of a late season front range opportunity

Friday still looks ok in Ojai, but the current forecast is calling for the sea breeze to cool down the coastal zones, so SB looks inverted by Friday.

I may try to fly Thursday from SB if I can align some of my issues. I'd prefer to hold out until Saturday, but by then you will need to go inland to get away from the cool ocean air. There should be some sea breeze in SB Thursday afternoon, so it may work better earlier near the coast, but it should still be hot inland later in the afternoon.

A note of caution. The lapse rate looks strong, so don't expect mild conditions midday. I do expect it to mellow late in the afternoon on Thursday with Ojai forecasting temperatures over 100 degrees. When we get 100 degree days in the summer, the 6K temperature is typically running around 75 degrees, but Wednesday's forecasted 6K temp is only about 65, which equates to a 35 degree spread from the surface to 6K in Ojai (ballistic) and a 25 degree spread in SB (strong). Sometimes the potential is better with a weaker lapse rate because what goes up must come down, so days with strong lift typically also have strong sink which shortens our reach on glide. The days are long and it should work late, so try to stay in the game to enjoy the late afternoon inland air.

I'm open to flying tandem if you want to explore XC and don't mind the front seat.

[Faoro_Ron]

Tom Truax called me last night and asked if I could fly today. When Sundowner calls you and suggests it's going to be a good day to fly, it's best to listen. I told him I couldn't go long XC with him but I definitely wanted to fly. I have not flown for three months and therefore I'm very rusty.

Pam dropped SD off at my house at 8:30 and we sat around for awhile catching up. Then we took my car up the hill and stopped at the Rock (nothing), the Bypass (blowing down) and got out at Skyport (a little stronger down) at ten AM. Since it was too early to launch, we cruised up to La Cumbre Peak and sat at a table in the shade checking the reports. By 10:30 we were getting little whiffs and waffles as the switch took hold. Back down to Skyport and it was blowing in perfect. Cort drove up while we fiddled with gear and Tom laid out after calling Aaron to give him the thumbs up. All three of us were in the air (Cort helping me after my wing turned sideways on a blown launch) in 45 minutes and by the time I got to the R&R, Tom was nearing Painted Cave. I expected more high pressure conditions, but it was smooth lift that got smoother the higher you went. After such a long hiatus, I could not believe we were climbing out over 5,000 feet in shirtsleeves!

I flew around La Cumbre Peak for some time getting back the feel and Cort did circles around and above me. There was abundant lift almost everywhere, especially deep on the back ridge behind the Thermal Factory. 5K anywhere you wanted it. Cort left to do a flyby over town and I passed high over Stearn's Wharf and the harbor. Aaron joined us at East Beach and Cort's son, Tom, boosted us back to retrieve the vehicles.

I watched Sundowner head eastbound downrange and called him at 4:30, about 25 minutes after he landed beyond Santa Paula. Just the usual for him...

About one and a half hours.

[cortfly]

It was an amazingly good day, very unexpected for this late in the year, but the weather conditions have been unusual to say the least. My flight was made more interesting when my Ascent vario fell off my wrist shortly after launch, so I got to practice the seat-of-the-pants technique. Fortunately for me, like Ron said, there was lift ( and birds ) everywhere.
As I sit here with a hot breeze blowing through the window, the forecast conditions for tomorrow look very similar, with maybe a little earlier and stronger onshore push. Professor Truax, if you're back yet, could you give us the pleasure of your prognostications ?

[sd]

It was an amazingly good day... (Thursday)
... the forecast conditions for tomorrow look very similar, with maybe a little earlier and stronger onshore push. Professor Truax, if you're back yet, could you give us the pleasure of your prognostications ?

Friday Morning Update:
The lapse rate looks weaker than Thursday, warmer at 6K and cooler at the surface. Wednesday had the strongest lapse rate, weaker on Thursday, and weaker still on Friday, but Friday may still be good enough early. On Thursday, the sea breeze did pull up the Santa Clara River all the way to the desert, but there wasn’t much of a breeze in the Channel or at the beach. Kind of an odd day Thursday with the coastal zones heating up as much or more than the inland locations. More wind in the Channel this morning and stronger on-shore gradients compared to Thursday. The NWS Discussion is calling for early heating followed by afternoon cooling near the beach, so I suspect it will likely work better early rather than late in the afternoon. The winds aloft forecast is also calling for more flow from the WNW this afternoon compared to Thursday.
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Thursday Night Perception Regarding Friday:The Lapse rate looks a little weaker Friday, 3 to 5 degrees cooler down low and perhaps a tad warmer aloft, but it was stronger than desired Thursday, so I suspect Friday will be good enough. A little more west at altitude on Friday, and then significantly more onshore flow from the west this weekend. Ojai should continue to boom Friday (hit 7300 at several locations Thursday), and hopefully SB will be good enough to get past the low points behind Summerland. It was pretty easy going Thursday with altitude to spare, so there is some wiggle room for weaker lift. Thursday was blowing OTB at 10, cycling in at 10:45, and soarable at 11. I got up easily from the Skyport launch at 11:15. It was also working at EJ’s, but it was good down low, so there was no need to extend the vehicle retrieve. The air was nice early, but by one o’clock it had some punch, and by 2 I was motivated to keep my hands on the steering handles. It did mellow out late in the day over Santa Paula Ridge. A little west wind in the afternoon on Thursday, but not enough to tear the thermals. Expect a bit more west Friday afternoon. The back ridges worked good early on Thursday, but later in the day there was some south wind over the Ojai ridges, I suspect due to a venturi as the back range mountains were drawing.