3/9 Sunday / Oat Mt / A River too Far

[sd]

Link to Sundowner's Notes from Sunday
http://paraglide.net/log/14/03-09/2_summary.htm
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Sunday Morning Update / Going to Fillmore, with the intention of flying west.

Meet in Carp at 9:30 and Ventura around 10ish PDT (9 am PST), then 10:30 in Fillmore to be on lunch by 11. Call if you want to car pool form Carp or meet in Ventura or Fillmore (805 680-7727 sd cell) We have a truck with HG racks and crew.

San Cayetano Ridge would be the best call, but we haven't figured how to get to launch yet, so I'm going to Oat because we have HGs on-board with crew who can't hike to the Nuthouse.

Significant issues today are the high clouds and SE wind, sort of a pre-frontal. The wind decreases with altitude and fades as the day ages. Lapse rate looks good down lower, but there is a pronounced inversion off to the east around 5 or 6K, so don't expect big altitudes. Less of an inversion toward the west.

Saturday's high clouds were a result of lifting, which we will have today, but Sunday also has high clouds streaming. We are on the edge of the mass, so it is a bit of a dice roll.
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Friday night update
Looks like continued high clouds through the weekend, but the lapse rate on Saturday is impressive. It warms up some at altitude on Sunday, but still looks good down lower.

For a HG, Santa Barbara looks like the best call for Saturday. Don’t let the high clouds discourage you too much. Hopefully they will be thin enough for even heating and good altitude well above the top of the range. SB is calling for light flow from the west in the afternoon, but transitioning to flow from the east as you progress toward Ojai. Ojai has a better lapse rate on Saturday, but you aren’t going to hike a HG up to the Nuthouse. Max altitude in Ojai should be plenty to get over Casitas Pass, but you will likely run into a headwind on the west side. Fillmore continues to look too windy on Saturday.

The Santa Anna wind backs down on Sunday, but unfortunately, the high clouds remain and the air is warmer aloft. Max altitudes look lower on Sunday and the lift weaker. The wind on Sunday is more east, but the inverse of Saturday, with less east further east and increasing flow from the east toward Point Conception. Fillmore may offer the best XC potential on Sunday, if you can make the first connection. Max altitudes in Fillmore on Sunday are looking a little lower than they were yesterday morning, but the lower level lapse rate still looks good enough. Connecting from the Nuthouse to Santa Barbara and beyond looks like a higher probability than connecting from Fillmore, but Fillmore offers a longer course.

In Summary: I recommend flying Santa Barbara on Saturday. Ojai may work better on Saturday, but requires a bit of exercise. For Sunday, Ojai offers the best probability, but Fillmore might offer more potential. Santa Barbara should be ok on Sunday going west, but not so good for flying east.

I can’t fly Saturday, but may try fly Sunday, either from Fillmore or the Nuthouse.

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Thursday morning look at the Weekend (Fri, Sat, and Sunday).

Friday looks a bit transitional; ok in SB down low (below 35ish, to 4K) and light wind from the west in the afternoon. Ojai (the Nuthouse) should work pretty good with a nice lapse rate and very little wind.

Santa Barbara improves on Saturday as the upper flow clocks around from the NE for a Santa Anna Event. Santa Barbara’s Saturday lapse rate looks better than Friday with the lift going higher. The SB wind is forecasted to be light from west, but increasing flow from the east as you progress further east toward the Santa Anna drain paths (the Santa Clara River). Ojai looks like good XC potential on Saturday with a NE tail wind toward SB transitioning to ESE in the afternoon, but expect to bump into west flow west of Casitas Pass, so an out and return may be a good option. Ojai’s, lapse rate looks stronger than SB throughout the weekend, and the top of the lift looks a bit higher in Ojai (as expected). Fillmore will likely be too windy on Saturday.

For Sunday, Fillmore may offer the better XC potential westbound as the Santa Anna fades. Fillmore’s lower level lapse rate looks impressive up to about 6K with light flow from the SE, both of which are ingredients for connecting and working up San Cayetano ridge. 6K is likely marginal but doable for making the uphill jump from Santa Paula Ridge into Upper Ojai (arriving low on Puckers?). The Ojai and SB lapse rate continue to look good on Sunday (but not as strong as Saturday) with light flow from the south east along the entire course (tailwind if you are flying westbound). Saturday is the peak heat day, but Sunday may offer a longer course.

[dteal]

Hey Tom - what's your crystal ball saying tonight?
DT