Wannabe Sunday 2/9

[sd]

Link to SD’s log for Sunday
http://paraglide.net/log/14/02-09/1_skyport_and_elings.htm
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Sunday Morning Update 8:am
Looks like the stratus overcast it trying to stay to our north, at least through the early morning. The wind forecast is down a bit. The lapse rate is only ok at best down lower, and inverted somewhere between the low 3s and mid 4s depending on location and time, with a better lapse rate to the west and later in the day. Will likely see some convection OD along the mountains due to the high moisture content, and the overcast to our north is forecast to migrate southeast.

It's blowing down light in the foothills at dawn, but that should give way to west wind as the day builds. Still like Elings and the Bypass (or Skyport if it isn't in the clouds) this morning, and maybe Bates and the Avenue this afternoon. The forecast is still calling for some west wind to sweep through later, but not nasty, and it' not blowing hard around Point Conception yet.

Both schools are heading to Elings, so we are on our own in the mountains. Expecting big flights from the T-Hill, but I'm heavy, so I'll look for a bit more gusto.
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Saturday Late Night look at Sunday
Sunday and Monday look like potential Bates days with a possibility of jumping down to Ventura. The direction looks like it may be a bit better on Sunday, and Monday is a school day… The wind should sweep through from the west and might get too windy for PGs at some point in the afternoon at Bates. Wilcox will likely blow harder than Bates. There will be more wind off the west, and Bates can be fickle, so not certain it will actually pull in, and the timing is anybody’s guess, but likely not early. It is better to be in the air when it starts to blow hard enough to jump the gap. The forecast is calling for gust to 30 toward Point Conception, but only 10 to 20 elsewhere, and the Oxnard plain is only calling for 15 from the SW.

Likely not a good day in the Mountains for a number of reasons. Too much wind up high and not much sun under a morning overcast with partial post frontal clearing in the afternoon. The lapse rate is ok below 2500 early, and up into the mid to high 3s later in the day, but by then, the wind will likely be an issue. The Rock or the Bypass may have a short window between the morning overcast and the afternoon wind. If you can get on course, you might make Carpinteria but won’t likely be able to go over Casitas Pass. It is inverted above 3K early and 4K later in the day. The lapse rate is better off to the west and more stable to the east, likely due to cooler wind behind the front as it sweeps through from the west. The forecast is calling for possible drizzle in the morning, but with warm air at altitude, there isn’t much support to lift the moisture high enough for showers and associated gust fronts.

With a better lapse rate down low, Elings may have a window on the leading edge of the west wind. Perhaps Chad can extend his record past Parma and follow the frontal passage along the Riviera towards Summerland and beyond.

I’d recommend trying something west early, Elings or the Bypass, but be willing to fall off toward Bates if the wind comes through before the sun. Wilcox will also likely work for awhile, but it is also likely to get too windy for PGs in the afternoon. If there is too much wind at Wilcox, and not enough at Bates, we have flown the Summerland Cliffs near the Padaro overpass. Low tide on Sunday is about a quarter past 1.

And if the wind doesn’t blow hard enough at Bates, we might shake the dust off The Avenue, it’s been known to work at sundown.