Sat 6/1, Top Land Topa Bluffs

[sd]

Link to Sundowner's flight log for Saturday
Top Land Top Bluffs
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_06-01/1_top_land_topa_bluffs.htm
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_06-01/photos
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Friday Evening Update:
We are committed to a 9:30 meet at Nordhoff HS for Chiefs launch. Expect to be airborne around 11:30ish? Looks like less wind aloft than forecasted earlier, mostly LnV. Expect draw from the SW down lower in the afternoon (Ojai). Chris and John report they may run 2 trucks if necessary.

Pine is looking more attractive with the disappearance of SE flow from the winds aloft forecast. I'd be game to hike into the old 5500 north launch if anyone wants to check it out. Launch is 500 feet higher than Hwy 33 and 2 miles in from the gate. The lapse rate at Pine is looking strong. Ojai's lapse rate is looking average, so we likely won't get high enough to connect to big altitude OTB.

I'd prefer not to leave my car at Nordhoff. If anyone is passing through Carpinteria or Ventura, please give me a call. If we leave a vehicle in Ventura we can catch the bus home from Fillmore if necessary. If you want to hike into the old north launch, we may want to leave earlier to allot time to hike. 805 680-7727 cell. Chirs is looking for an extra driver. If you know of someone please give him a call.
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Friday Afternoon Update
Saturday's heat wave is forecasted to be a one day event. The temperature difference between the south coast near the ocean compared to the inland valleys should be huge. A Catalina Eddy is forecasted to push marine air into the south coast from the SE, but light offshore gradients will hopefully keep the Ojai Valley clear most of the day.

The highest lift should be near Pine Mountain and Lockwood Valley. The high desert looks less impressive. The lapse rate is trending significantly better at Pine, with rising surface temperatures and lowering 12K temperatures. Ojai may be a iffy depending on how strong the marine air pulls in.

Ojai didn't work well on Friday. Good pilots only got a few hundred over Chiefs launch. They reported a marine influence lower on the spine down toward Twin Peaks. Friday's forecasted temperature was 92, but actual reported high was only about 80 degrees. Ojai station reports historically run a bit lower than the forecast, but not 12 degrees cooler. Saturday's forecasted high for Ojai is 98 degrees, and the marine layer should be lower.

The forecasted winds aloft are swinging around from the NE on Friday to the SE on Saturday. Top of the lift forecast for Pine varies from the mid 8s to 14K depending on which model you reference. Top of the lift in Ojai will likely be from the high 5s to 8K. I suspect we will be getting into the 6s.

Looking at our launch options:

Ojai is likely the best local option. I would prefer to drive up compared to hiking in the heat. Don't think we will be able to connect OTB and reach Santa Maria, but if going OTB from the Bluffs or Casitas Pass is possible, that would be good option to get away from the ocean air. Getting across 33 to White Ledge will require transiting the cooler river air. The Bluffs will likely work better than Nordhoff because they are higher and more protected from the marine influence. We can likely get to the bus stop in Fillmore. If we do play for White Ledge and get low, I'd recommend scratching back downwind toward Chiefs for a reboot and trying the other direction toward the high ground.

Pine would be worth a look if the road wasn't officially closed, but even if you can get to the south launch, it may be blowing a bit much from the SE. Pine draws from the south, so forecasted flow from the SE is typically stronger at the south launch at Pine. I would not recommend hiking in to the old north launch with the wind forecast to be from the SE. It does often blow up both sides with the North and South launches simultaneously working, but I think there may be too much south wind on Saturday for the old north launches to work

Fillmore. Perhaps Dr. Pratt can give it a go and post his experience.

Santa Barbara. Looks like the lower launches may be too close to the ocean, but if you can launch early from EJs and go OTB from La Cumbre Peak or the Alternator, you might be able to connect on the other side of the river. Not sure what the access is after the White Fire?

Figueroa Mountain? Historically, there haven't been reports of long flights from Figueroa. The vertical from launch to the main LZ is only about 600 feet, but launch is around 4500 MSL, well removed from the ocean air, and the Santa Ynez valley is forecasted to reach 98 degrees.

I'll likely try Ojai. Don't have a meet time or logistics yet, but the Ojai crew reports they have a permit. It may be better to go early to try and avoid the marine air. We will likely look at the morning reports before posting a meet time, but I'd rather be early than late. Will try to leave a car at the bus stop in Ventura if possible so we can get back from Fillmore without chase if necessary.
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Tuesday look at upcoming Saturday
A bit early to call turn points, but the models are indicating a short lived offshore event with near record temperatures in the Valleys on Saturday. It’s not likely the Tuesday models for Saturday will be spot on, so the variables and timing are likely to shift by the weekend. Haven’t seen a forecast for the winds and temperature at altitude. Perhaps Southside can offer his assessment.

The current forecast is calling for surface temps in the interior valleys to be warmer than the desert. Perhaps we can launch from Ojai, go OTB around Casitas Pass, connect at Old Man Mountain, and fly to Santa Maria? If the marine influence isn’t too bad in Santa Barbara, you can likely launch SB and go OTB from there. The Santa Ynez Valley is forecasted to approach 100 degrees.

I couldn’t find a recent update on the White Fire. I didn’t see any smoke at sunset Tuesday, but with winds gusting over 40 mph, its unlikely it has been extinguished, so it may be an issue.

[Southside]

Tough call with NAM more bullish than GFS, especially if you can manage to get established OTB. Despite the high temp the lapse rate in Ojai at this point is just OK. However, NAM is calling for 13k+ tops OTB with some cloud development. GFS, on the other hand, is saying that OTB is no better than the front range. Both models are calling for fairly light SE winds with GFS having more of an east component.

[Aaron]

Thanks Tom for all the detailed options. A large crew is heading to plowshares tomorrow. I will probably be tryin ej bowl early. Cant wait to hear all the stories. Good luck to all tomorrow!

[sd]

I will probably be tryin ej bowl early.

Aaron. I've gone OTB from the Alternator pretty low (a few hundred over the ridge) after launching from the Skyport and connected low on the hills across the river. Was then able to bench up and fly to Lake Cachuma. I think I've read post about flying your speed gliders at a site across the river. We've connected OTB toward Pendola in HGs, but my attempts going OTB toward Pendola in a PG have resulted in a flush. It's a longer jump that direction, and the lower points toward Pendola aren't as defined or steep as the options across the river near Red Rock. Look forward to reading your report. I suspect Plow Shares will work good also. There should be plenty of protection from the marine air OTB from SB, so if you can connect the dots, you might be able to fly up past Figueroa Mountain and hook up with the Plow Shares Crew in Santa Maria.

[sd]

Link to Sundowner's flight log for Saturday
Top Land Top Bluffs
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_06-01/1_top_land_topa_bluffs.htm
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_06-01/photos