Link to Sundowner's archive for Friday
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_05-03/2_weather.htm
Thursday night tea leaves for Friday. Hoping to launch at 11, get high (7 to 10K), go westbound toward Santa Barbara, round a turn point, and fly back toward Fillmore.
The Friday morning meet time at NHS is 9:30 to load on Chris Grantham's Fly Above All Suburban. Chris plans to bring his truck down from launch himself. I'm carpooling with Ron Faoro (The Spin Doctor) from Carpinteria at 8:50. If anyone else is coming from SB, Ron and I would prefer to hitch a ride so we don't have to leave a vehicle in Ojai. My cell number is 680-7727
The lapse rate is strong down low, and average up higher. Expect to get into the 7s on raw thermals, and hopefully higher in convergence over the high peaks. The temperature in Ojai hit 92 today (Thursday) around 2 pm, and is forecasted to be similar or slightly warmer on Friday (the 100 degree predictions from earlier in the week have been downgraded). The 6K temperature is forecasted to be about 60 degrees F, and 50 degrees at 9K. The dry adiabatic lapse rate (cooling rate) of a rising and expanding thermal is 5.5 degrees F per thousand feet, so a 30 degree atmospheric spread from the valley floor at 1K to 6K is stronger than the thermal cooling rate.
Fly Above All took some students up today (Thursday), but it was blown out from the NE. The forecast is for the Santa Anna event (wind) to back off tomorrow and switch from offshore to onshore. Today, it blew hard down the Santa Clara River and out to sea in the morning, but then switched onshore in the afternoon. Oxnard reported switching about 1:30, Camarillo about 3 PM, and Santa Paula about 5:30. As of 7 PM, Fillmore was still blowing stiff down river (offshore). I expect the onshore flow to draw in earlier and push further up river on Friday. There may be a sea breeze convergence somewhere enabling us to bridge across the river.
Ojai was SE on Thursday until about mid afternoon when the west came in with gusto. Some of the gusto was likely attributed to the draw from a strong lapse rate. Rose Valley was east all day. The coast from Carpinteria past Goleta was SW all day. La Cumbre Peak was NE in the morning, but switched onshore from the SW in the afternoon. Friday's forecast is for NW at altitude in SB and NE in Ojai. The wind should clock around more to the north with altitude, but the forecast is for the wind at altitude to be light.
We may have trouble going XC because it will likely be NE up high and SW down lower. The plan is to stay high on the westbound leg and stay lower on the return leg eastbound. We will need to get high in a few places on the eastbound leg, but the east wind hopefully will be backing off later in the day. If we do make it back to the east end of Ojai, we will want web reports from Santa Paula, Fillmore, and Piru before venturing out into the river flow.
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Wednesday morning perception. / Heat Alert
I bit early to call turn points, but the onshore flow and associated thick marine layer is switching to a high pressure offshore Santa Anna event. Peak temperature is currently forecasted to occur Friday with Ojai approaching 100 degrees. The local flow on Thursday is forecasted to be from the SE, perhaps a bit stiff for PGs in the mountains. I expect the wind on Friday to be less before the flow switches back onshore with associated cooling for the weekend. Santa Barbara may work on Friday, but will be 10 degrees cooler behind the Riviera compared to Ojai. Sometimes the soaring in SB is better early before the ocean air pulls in. Ojai should work late into the afternoon, but I’d recommend hiking early to avoid heat stroke. Note that my assessment is based on the forecasted surface temperature without evaluating the 6K temperature. Perhaps Southside could offer his insight.
Highlights from Wednesday's Forecast Discussion
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_05-03/forecast_discussion.htm#wednesday