by sd » Sat Nov 24, 2012 5:03 am
Pre-Dawn Review
Ojai looks like a good call. The marine inversion is squashed down below 400 feet, so the SB mountains may work behind the Rivera, but Ojai is more of a sure thing. If you do fly SB, start high and avoid getting low. The base of the hill at the Nuthouse is about 1K, so it is further above the top of the marine inversion than Parma. This marine inversion event is a bit unusual in that it is quite strong but shallow with a sharp boundary.
The wind's aloft forecast is calling for Light and Variable up through 12K, so don't expect to get on course toward SB from Ojai. There has been a bit more drainage tonight compared with Thursday night, so hopefully it will clear out better. Santa Paula is light down river at 3 AM Saturday, but was calm Friday morning. Ojai has been trickling offshore all night, similar to Friday pre-dawn, and the forecast is for it to get a tad hotter today in Ojai compared to Friday. Fillmore and Piru continue to blow Santa Anna, but about 10 knots less than Friday
The Santa Anna drainage flow from the east is forecasted to back down this afternoon so we may be able to reach Fillmore, but it can be dangerously windy in the Santa Clara River on Santa Anna days, so try to get a report before committing out of the protected Ojai Valley toward Santa Paula Ridge. I don't think the Santa Clara River will be too windy this afternoon, but it is presently blowing 25ish and was gusting over 40 on Friday.
Timing: I'm on the early bus, so I'll be kicking rocks for awhile. I suspect we will go to Chiefs, but the early bus may have an option to go to Nordhoff since Nordhoff has good early morning east facing exposure. Chris Grantham reported Pilots on Friday waited till noonish and had a narrow window. I think the window will be wider on Saturday, but note that thermal draw pulls cooler marine air up the Ventura River, and Nordhoff is exposed to the river, so Northoff often works better earlier rather than later. Late in the day, I recommend a downwind retreat away from the river toward the high ground at the Topa Bluffs. We will need someone with a smart phone to check the wind in Fillmore before we reach for Santa Paula ridge.
A potential task might be to launch Chiefs and go west to Spine One. Cross 33 if the altitude is good (above 5K at Spine One) but turn at Spine One if not. There will likely be pilots launching from the Nuthouse, so you will know if you can get back up from low in the gap if you want to reach low for an extended turn point. If we do get across 33, I wouldn't recommend going past White Ledge.
If you lap early and have time to kill, you can top land Chiefs for a break. I've wanted to top land at the Bluffs for years, but always chicken out. If the west comes up the Santa Clara River, we should make a play for Santa Paula Ridge. The forecast is for the Santa Anna to back off in the afternoon. What to do from Santa Paula Peak depends on factors like do we have chase and how far up the river the wind is pushing, We can sometimes work a convergence along sea-breeze front that is plowing up the river, but that is more common when the days are longer and more robust in the spring, so we'll have to wait and see.
With 3 bus trips from Nordhoff scheduled (8, and two @ 10), plus pilots hiking the Nuthouse trail, we should have plenty of indicators bobbing around to map out the day.