by sd » Fri Apr 06, 2012 10:55 pm
Friday night guess about Saturday, but I've been 180 out the last couple of attempts, so don't take it to the bank. Getting late in the season, but hoping for April showers mid week. A mild Santa Anna event down south Friday and the coming weekend mornings, but the flow around Point Conception has been from the NW. The afternoon sea-breeze is pulling in a bit near the coast even in Oxnard, so the flow at our altitudes along the foothills from SB through Ojai has been and will be from the west in the afternoon. The big problem is the anemic lapse rate near the ocean. Ojai is getting almost 10 degrees warmer than the beach, so it's more of a sure thing, but you might forfeit half the course and it's extra effort to get to launch. If we can wiggle past the low stretch of range without much protection from the cooler ocean air behind Montecito and Carpinteria, the climbs should get better at Noon Peak. Aaron noted that once you got below about 3K on Tuesday you were toast, and the high ground behind Summerland is only 3K. Expecting a sea-breeze front to push a convergence up the Santa Clara River. You can likely reach it from the Nuthouse, but not sure about SB. The forecasted 6K wind is light from the SSE, so we should be able to utilize the higher ridge line launches. With morning frost in Ojai about 20 degrees colder than the forecasted 6K temp, we need to let the inversion break, so don't expect it to be soarable before 11ish, and it will likely work better after noon if the sea-breeze doesn't pull in too strong and break up the weak high pressure thermals. If you opt for the Nuthouse, the day will get hot, so you can hike early (9:30ish) and bring a book, or start your climb around 10:30 or later with extra water, and of course there should be plenty of newly hatched and hungry spring time bugs to keep you company.