Bates Monday?

[John Fritsche]

Anyone want to offer opinions on Monday's forecast? What I'm getting is partly sunny and NW 5-15. I'm wondering about Bates or Cayucos. Local experts' opinions very welcome. Thanks!

[oj]

I went to take a look at Bates today when SBA reported NNW @ 10 mph. Actual was SW 18-26.

Bates does it's own thing. One day it thermal blocks, the next it blows out. The only thing consistent there is it's unpredictability.

[sd]

John, as OJ indicates, Bates can be fickle. Sunday was blown out for PGs. In Carpinteria, it was blowing hard all day, cross and perhaps offshore in the morning, but it clocked in later in the day. Might have been ok for hang gliders. Tomorrow's wind forecast is for less wind but more than 5 to 15. The SB mountains have the potential to block (during a window), but they could also OD if they do. It might be cyclic, blowing down in the morning, then blocking and sucking in before overdevelopment. The OD may cycle a couple of times before the afternoon wind builds enough to scruff it off. Bates will likely blow less than the SB airport. The wind sweeps down the coast from west, typically blowing hard in SB before Carpinteria. We often try to time it and stay ahead of the wind. Carpinteria was blustery at dawn on Sunday, but I suspect it will be calm Monday morning. If you do fly Bates, expect it to be blowing harder on the LZ beaches in Ventura and Oxnard. The wind wants to venturi and suck up the river, but you can land backing up in the smooth ocean air. Pilots do occasionally opt to go inland at Ventura, but it can be a wild ride. / SD

[John Fritsche]

OK, thanks for the info, sd and oj. I guess Bates sounds too fickle to chance driving down there for. It sounds like a place you go check-out when you're already in SB and have determined it's too windy or OD'd for the mountains (that's how I ended up at Bates last time). I'd head down to fly the mountains instead but the somewhat-strong NW wind forecast concerns me. Guess I'll wait until Wednesday...but I better not read any posts Monday night about how awesome the day was, dammit! Seriously, though, good luck to you locals who have the luxury of making up your minds much later in the day than I have to.

[sd]

The 7 am indicators do look promising this morning between systems. Very little wind on the water. Still have the jet stream overhead, but not quite as bad as Sunday. The Peak is blowing some, but I would expect that to block by 11ish.