Sat 5/1 Skyport to Carpinteria

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Skyport to Carpinteria
http://paraglide.net/log/10/10_05-01/1_ ... o_home.htm

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11:30 am update / Parma about noonish. I'd get there sooner if I could, but mopping up from Tess's B-Day Slumber Party last night with a half dozen 6-8 year old girls. The wind seems to be backing off in the channel and the mountains, but I don't think the Peak is reporting correctly. Montecito still has a lot of north, but is back down some. Bates is looking iffy, with the wind in the channel light. It was SE earlier this morning, but calm now. No crew.
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8 am guess

The jet stream is still directly overhead, but sliding off to the east.
Yesterday looked interesting as the super strong lapse rate fought with the north wind back and forth to block it cyclically. The north was strong, but less than a couple days before, and the lapse rate spiked. There was varying blockage and rebound as pockets of superheated hot air would break loose and push on the cold air above. It was blowing offshore through Carp in the morning, but went calm, a little SE, back and forth, and finally the sea breeze pulled in to fill the thermal void.

Today has a much weaker lapse rate than yesterday, so not as much power to block the north. The lapse rate is ok, but there is still quite a bit of north to deal with. Starting out with some catabatic flow out the drain paths, but there should be some blockage and the sea breeze is forecast to pull in again when the thermals start to wick away the surface heating.

The forecast is calling for the catabatic to back off and give way to an afternoon flow from the west. The mountains may block to varying degrees, but there will be some north wind at altitude to deal with. Too early to call a meet time, but if the mountains show blockage by mid morning, there might be a window around midday.

The channel forecast is calling for an afternoon sea breeze, so Bates may offer a window, but without the strong lapse rate to power the thermals, I've seen days were the wind stays just off shore teasing the pilots at Bates. Hopefully it will pull in. High tide all day.

There will likely be more wind to the west. SBA was reporting strong flow over San Marcus Pass this morning, but the Oxnard plain was calm. Carpinteria will not likely blow as hard as SBA.

8 pm note: I read the jet wrong because the map was stuck on Friday