Wednesday, 5/20/2020 + Thursday

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Wednesday, 5/20/2020 + Thursday

Postby sd » Wed May 20, 2020 7:26 am

Wednesday Morning Perception

Both the lapse rate and wind fade (as is typical when the passage of a cold front ages). The base wind is still from the north, but the weaker lapse rate results in less vertical mixing so less north wind is pulled down to our soaring altitudes.

Yesterday’s altitudes looked tempting, but I didn’t hear any reports of pilots putting their spurs on to fly our local mountains as the wind was a significant consideration. Willy did have a good flight along the Rincon Coast.

Today’s marine inversion has been mostly scoured out, but there appears to be some marine influence down low, so getting past the low area along Castle Ridge might require some effort. Hopefully we will be able to high enough to get over Casitas Pass. The NAM Skew-T forecast sounding seem to indicate a late developing day with SB late morning thermal tops in the mid-3s rising into the low 4s in the early afternoon then continually higher as the day ages, maybe up to the mid 5s late in the day. There is some forecasted late day flow from the NW about 10 knots at ridgeline.

Ojai starts our somewhat anemic early, but looks pretty good by 2 PM with thermal tops good enough to get a thousand over the higher terrain… 6Kish along the front points and over 7K at the Topa Bluffs?

Fillmore looks ok. Likely good enough to dribble to the interstate?

Tomorrow / Wednesday, looks like a classic diurnal switch from the offshore to onshore. Expect the Watershed Divide convergence to set up. You might be able to reach it downwind from Pine. Pine has a good lapse rate but seems to cap out around 10K. Looks like a good day for an out and return from the Nuthouse with a timed boutique detour OTB over the Watershed Divide? Fillmore looks it will likely have too much east flow for an early launch (Thursday), but looks good later in the day as it switches from offshore to onshore

I think pilots are targeting about 10 at Parma today, but I recommend East Beach. The #20 bus is free. It runs along the coast from Bates with a stop at East Beach, but there are no buses to Parma.

If you hike the Nuthouse tomorrow, I recommend an early start to beat the heat. The temperature in Ojai tomorrow (Thursday) is forecasted to be in the high 80s.
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