Spring Instability for the week of Monday 3/23/2020

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Spring Instability for the week of Monday 3/23/2020

Postby sd » Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:32 am

Monday Morning (3/23/2020) Pre-Dawn Perception

SW to NW flow all week with unstable air so SB offers the longest course

Today starts out damp down low but drier up higher. There is some west to NW wind, but the observations look encouraging. The air warms and dries out some and the wind backs off a bit as the day ages but there is still some west flow in the forecast. The lapse rate looks good enough. Cold at 6K. I suspect it should work locally and on course eastbound. Maybe the better day of the week for PGs?

Tuesday (tomorrow) has a stronger robust lapse rate down low, but also a capping inversion around ridgeline, so it might be dicey getting over Casitas Pass. There is a lot of wind up high but the capping inversion should shield us. Looks like a great day, but the altitudes might be limited to about 4K? Faster climbs down low compared to Monday, but not going as high?

On Wednesday, the strong lapse rate remains, but the capping inversion breaks, which will permit the thermals to climb higher, but will also enable vertical mixing which will likely pull the strong upper level winds down.

Thursday, the progression continues with a stellar lapse and no inversion below 20K, so the wind should pull down. There is less wind up higher, but we will likely see more wind down lower.

Looks like it might work for PGs on Monday and Tuesday. Advantage Hang Gliders later in the week due to increasing low level wind after Tuesday?

The coastal sites should have opportunities all week, but likely blown out for PGs in the afternoon later in the week.
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