North Wind Weekend 1/11-12

[sd]

Monday Update:
I haven't seen or heard of any reports indicating pilots flew the mountains this past weekend. I did look at the La Cumbre Station a few times Sunday, and it looks like it blew hard OTB all day.
____________________________
Sunday Morning 8 o'clock Review
Today's (Sunday's) lapse rate looks better than Saturday, but it's likely blown out in the mountains unless you are flying a Hang Glider and launch from the Brotherhood. The lower level wind west of Ventura (Santa Barbara) subsides tomorrow (Monday), but continues from the ENE up higher above the range.

Flights from Ojai to Santa Barbara look doable from Monday through Thursday. Peak surface temperatures occur Wednesday, lingering into Thursday, but the temperature at altitude tracks so the lapse rate will be similar (good) all week. High clouds are forecast to be an issue starting Friday and continuing at least through next Saturday.

It's blowing hard around Point Conception this morning. There is some wind mid-channel, but it's much stronger out past the islands. The forecast is for NW, so Bates is iffy. If the improving lapse rate does suck the wind in at Bates, it will likely be cross from the west.
_____________________________
Saturday morning 8 o'clock review
Saturday's lapse rate between the surface and 6Kis poor, but there is an inversion around 4K, so the lapse rate below 3500 is better. The inversion also seems to be giving some protection from the north wind. La Cumbre Peak and Montecito are both light from the north at 8 am. The temperature spread is only 2 degrees F, but that should improve as the day heats if the inversion can hold the north wind at bay. There isn't much wind on the water, and the forecast isn't calling for much. In summary, it may be a good day to pass in the mountains, but it you have an itch, the lower launches might be flyable, but the lift will likely be weak and wont' go very high.

Sunday looks like a better lapse rate with warmer temperatures down low and significantly cooler temperatures at 6K, but the NE wind may be an issue as the high pressure builds towards another Santa Anna event for the coming week. Sunday's forecast sounding is also showing an inversion, so it might work down low.
_________________________________________________________
Friday morning weather outlook for the coming weekend of 1/11-12
Wind above the ridge line from the north-ish (NW - NE), but warm for a north wind on Saturday, cooler on Sunday. The 6K temperatures are running high. There is an inversion that may offer some protection and better conditions down at the lower launches on Sunday, but don't expect epic flights from EJ's.

May be a better weekend to get chores done. The wind continues into early next week. Looking ahead, Wednesday-ish (timing is iffy that far out) may be a stellar day as the heat peaks. Flights from Ojai westbound to Santa Barbara may be possible from Tuesday through the end of the work week. By Wednesday-ish, the winds are light enough that Santa Barbara should be ok for P2 pilots above the ridge line.

If you want to fly back to Santa Barbara from Ojai, please review the posting at:
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=2985
No rain in sight as we continue with an unseasonal series of dry Santa Anna events this January.