End of Summer / First Post Frontal / 2022

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End of Summer / First Post Frontal / 2022

Postby sd » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:06 pm

Tuesday Night Perception

First Post Frontal of the pending South Coast Fall Season?

The low pressure that has been wobbling around for a few days will begin to move east. Tomorrow (Wednesday) is somewhat of a transition day with drying but still some wind from the west, not a lot down low but quite a bit up higher. By Thursday the high pressure starts to build into the weekend. Recommend having a permit on hand for Ojai (Nordhoff Ridge Road).

Tomorrow (Wednesday) / Last day of Summer
The lapse rate is ok but not robust (not as good as today). There is some west to southwest wind increasing with altitude. Fillmore will likely be reachable if you can get past Castle Ridge, which I think we can. Beyond Fillmore looks iffy due to a poor lapse rate from cool quenching air pushing up the river and warming air higher up as the high pressure builds through the day. Not a good day to bench back a range due to increasing wind at the higher altitudes, and the lapse rate isn’t good up high. Probably can’t launch super early, but it will likely be good enough by 11? Don’t need a long clock if you only expect to fly 50 miles and land at the bus stop?

Thursday starts to drain from the east, but the lapse rate is improving, likely due to compression heating under the building high pressure. SB looks flyable and might have some transient convergence assist as it switches from morning east to afternoon west. Can’t likely go very far due to increasing wind from the east toward the east. You could opt to launch in Ojai and do an out and back?

Friday has more east but also a better lapse rate (high pressure bumpy air if you like that sort of thing?). It does switch in SB but not until later. The east appears to be persistent in Ojai above the lower level onshore draw. The lapse rate looks good in Fillmore. I think there will be too much east wind to get off early from Oat. You could launch from San Cayetano, however, you would need to hike (check with Frank Worsley) [http://paraglide.net/amigo/dave_patterson/2022_03-26]
If you want to go XC but don’t’ want to hike I recommend starting from Ojai on Friday.

The high pressure is forecasted to continue into the weekend, so it would be good to have a Chiefs permit (Nordhoff Ridge Road) on hand by Friday because the forest service is closed on the weekend? Pine looks like there might be too much wind up high on Saturday, but Sunday might be ok for Pine?
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