First Weekend in November

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First Weekend in November

Postby sd » Sat Nov 06, 2021 8:58 am

Saturday Mid-Morning quick glance:

We are under a trough (low pressure). The marine layer has deepened compared to the past few days and the capping inversion is gone, so it isn’t as wet down low, but the marine layer goes higher. The marine layer has pulled into the valleys. The valleys should burn off mid-day, but the coast may not. Santa Barbara typically burns off better then Carpinteria.

Expect Elings to be flyable through the weekend.

There is a little wind form the west in the forecast for today and Windy is bullish on the coast blustering up enough to work for a narrow window at our coastal cliffs from early to mid-afternoon.

Ventura Avenue looks like it should work later in the afternoon...

With some west wind Sage may be an option today? but others with more Sage insight should comment.

Ajay asked about the Nuthouse. Maybe? But I’d recommend a later launch around 1 to 2 PM. Ojai will likely work better off to the east end which is higher and has more protection from the ocean, but there might be enough wind to bench your way over toward Twin Peaks and higher from the Nuthouse? Chiefs and the Repeater launches look like a higher probability than the Nuthouse, but they are 3 times the hike and perhaps not worth the exercise unless you are in training? I suppose you could drive up to the Repeater launch?

The lapse rate is better above 4K, but the moderate west wind increasing with altitude will likely be problematic up at Pine

The general condition persist through Monday, but there is perhaps less west wind tomorrow (Sunday). A cold front may bring light rain to our north on Tuesday. We will likely stay dry but could benefit from a change toward instability with Bates looking promising on Tuesday…
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