The feeble offshore push has been replaced by seasonal onshore flow from the west. May gray at the coast continues. The lapse rate on the coast is inverted today (Sunday).
Bates (and I suspect Wilcox and More Mesa) have been working for the past several days. The velocity at Bates launch has been weak and cross from the west, but everyone has been staying up easily on the main windsock ridge. I suspect Bates will work again this afternoon. Yesterday it was working from early afternoon till past 6 PM.
Yesterday (Saturday)
DP and Bummy did well on their 2nd flight from Flynn’s. Likely launched too early on their first flights? but got big altitude late in the day…
Reavis and company did ok in the Fishbowl at Crestline…
A bigger crew posted good flights from Tollhouse…
Fillmore was weak with an inversion cap in the low 2s, but marginally soarable underneath.
2023_04-29b_tom_truax_oat_fishbowl.kmz- clawing about low in the Fillmore Fishbowl
- (95.6 KiB) Downloaded 604 times
Plowshare?
Monday (tomorrow) the lapse rate under the inversion is good up to cloudbase around 3K, but excess stratus and OD could be an issue in SB…
Tuesday looks like potential rain.
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Saturday Morning Update
Saturday’s outlook for low areas in proximity to the ocean continues to deteriorate compared to forecast for Saturday from Thursday and Friday as the top of the inversion has risen toward 4K. Above 4K the lapse rate is dynamic. Potential for regional high clouds varies.
Fillmore looks flyable but weak. For the early flight (from the upper SE bowl launch), being able to claw up San Cayetano Ridge appears questionable. For the afternoon (2nd flight / from the lower west facing ridge launch), the onshore pulls in enough that there may be sustaining ridge lift with weak thermals mixed in. There are several pilots going to Fillmore on Saturday with low expectations, not expecting to be able to go XC.
Plowshare looks good if you can make the first connection at launch. The east wind seems manageable early. SE wind is increasing with altitude, more prominent to the east, but giving way to a push from the west later in the day. High clouds may be an issue. Not sure who is out at Plowshare today? Karl was promoting a trip, but haven’t heard back?
Flynn’s (Bishop) looks like it was a good call for today. The wind is light from the SW, and the lapse rate is good. There is potential for regional high clouds, but hopefully just enough to moderate the heating. You can follow Bummy and DP’s tracks on XCfind.
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Friday Night Update
The optimism has for Fillmore has faded. The current forecast shows an inversion below about 4K and less east wind than yesterday’s forecast for Saturday. Down lower the quenching onshore flow is pulling upriver early below any east wind above. It might be marginally soarable (not nearly as inverted as SB), but likely a struggle to climb up into the better profile above the inversion?
Plowshare continues to look potentially possible. The morning lapse rate near launch is ok. The afternoon lapse rate near New Cuyama looks good with the thermals going to 12K around 2 o-clock and light wind. The wild card is the potential for regional high clouds.
Sunday looks less promising.
Pilots had soaring flights today (Friday) from our coastal cliffs, Happy Canyon, Marshall, and Tollhouse, with Brian K posting one of the longer flights of the day, about 15 miles from Tollhouse…
Some pilots are in the Owens to fly Flynn’s on Saturday
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Thursday Night Look at Fri-Sun with a focus on Plowshare
Because it was requested
There is a high-pressure event peaking on Saturday.
There are some old Plowshare notes posted at:
http://paraglide.net/comment/plowshares_convergence.htm
and
http://scpa.info/sites/topaflyers_web/topa_flyers_site_guide.htm#plowshare
Plowshare tends to work best in the Spring and Fall when there is a healthy diurnal (daily) balance of overnight offshore drainage and afternoon onshore draw toward the inland low that results from sun generated expansion. Launch faces north on the west end of the Cuyama Valley, which tends to drain offshore overnight. The valley flow is pinched off and spills over the ridge at takeoff from the NE through mid-morning-ish to mid-day. When the quenching onshore pulls in it comes from the SW. The common traditional strategy is to launch into the morning NE flow before it switches onshore. The onshore flow is cooler air from the SW (OTB). If you are late, you can launch on the southside and jump OTB to the north side valley, but it can be hard to connect because you want to be on the warm (east) side of the convergence. It is better to be early and wait compared to being late to launch and not getting to fly? You want to be ready to go because it can switch fast with a short window.
The PG takeoff is about 3,875 ft MSL and the valley floor is about 1500 MSL, about the same vertical as the Skyport to Parma. After getting up at launch you need to move east to stay ahead of the onshore flow. Going east also means getting further from the road.
Friday (Tomorrow) the high pressure is building, and the east offshore flow is relatively persistent. The altitude looks good and gets better in the afternoon. Mid-day it appears better above 6K. It is common to struggle in early thermals above the spines near launch but if you can get up enough to move east expect the altitude to get better with top of the lift near 12K at 2 or 3 o-clock approaching New Cuyama. It might be slow going as the east flow on Friday is persistent, so the convergence will likely be slow moving upriver toward the east. Friday looks better late in day (on course, not at launch).
Saturday has the best lapse rate but also some high clouds. Will likely be an earlier launch. Might offer more XC potential if you can reach across Santa Barbara Canyon and get to Pine, but high clouds will likely be an issue? If you are still in the game late in the day, max altitude is 13 to 14K.
Sunday cools off some with more onshore flow and an early launch window, possibly too early? The lapse rate isn’t as good as Saturday, but likely still good enough. Max altitude is a little lower, perhaps 10K?
If you don’t fly Plowshare on Sunday, you might be able to fly Pine NS by hiking 2 miles past the gate along the paved road the north launch?
Santa Barbara’s local mountains don’t look good this weekend.
I suspect Ojai will be ok but I didn’t do an eval.
Fillmore looks good if you want some inland air more local than Plowshare, with potential to fly toward Plowshare? Friday seems to have the best lapse rate (around Fillmore) but might be a tad windy on launch early. On Saturday the SE wind looks less but the high clouds will likely be an issue. Friday and Saturday XC potential from Fillmore would be from the upper launch SE facing launch, across the Sespe and westbound up toward San Cayetano and beyond. On Sunday, the onshore pulls in early, so afternoon launches from the lower west facing ridge with limited XC potential.
Bates has been weak but working in the afternoon and Windy seems to think if might be good enough on Friday and Saturday afternoon. Same or better for More Mesa…
