Big April Weekend? 4/22/2023

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Saturday Morning Update

This morning’s NWS forecast discussion suggest the quenching onshore pull might be less than previously suspected and the high clouds will hopefully be thinner than last night’s prediction? The mild high pressure is relaxing toward a mild low pressure. Expect the stiff morning north wind at ridgeline (it is currently gusting to 30 at La Cumbre Peak) to subside and be launchable from the Skyport around 10ish…

There is significant variation in the various forecast models this morning. The ECMWF is suggesting the offshore drain (down the Santa Clara from the east) is more persistent while the NAM is forecasting more of a seasonal diurnal scenario where the inland expansion pulls in the onshore flow this afternoon.
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Friday Night look at the coming weekend

It’s long distance big flight season in SB and this weekend offers some potential, with Saturday offering a better lapse rate but more high clouds than Sunday.
A couple of prior noteworthy flights around this time of year
JLo / Nuthouse Boutique / 113.9 miles around 4 turnpoints / 5 legs
http://paraglide.net/amigo/jeff_longcor/2022_04-24
Logan / Skyport to San Dimas / 111.8 miles
http://paraglide.net/amigo/logan_walters/2020_03-18
and
Dilan / Skyport to Santa Monica
http://paraglide.net/amigo/dilan_benedetti/2021_03-24/skyport_to_santa_monica.htm

Today (Friday) was the peak heat day? Pilots were doing well in SB with Logan reporting over 6K. The lapse rate was good due to high surface temperatures.

Tomorrow (Saturday) offers some interesting potential.
Thickening high clouds through the afternoon are an issue, but the lapse rate is good enough that I think it will still work.
It should be launchable and soarable early. High pressure, so expect some mid-day punch.

Santa Barbara starts out with flow from the east but switches fairly early with some quenching onshore flow down low around 11-ish and building through the afternoon and eventually coming from the NW late in the afternoon up at ridgeline. Surface temps are a bit cooler compared to Friday, but the lapse rate is good trending toward robust as the day ages.
I recommend being in the air late in the day away from the coast. Ojai and beyond should offer good protection from the quenching onshore flow and the east backs off later on the east end of the course.

The Nuthouse (Ojai) might offer the max distance potential of the day with an early westbound leg, but expect to encounter building flow from the west, so be prepared to turn around and head east. The Nuthouse should be launchable early with a nice tailwind westbound up at 7500 by 11 AM. The east relaxes and the west pulls in by mid-afternoon with the Ojai altitude increasing to 9K.

Fillmore has a robust afternoon lapse rate with afternoon altitudes over 9K along the east/west convergence. Fillmore looks too windy from the east early, and there arguably isn’t an advantage launching further east than the Nuthouse because you will be clock limited westbound. I suspect the 2 liners can make it to La Cumbre from the Nuthouse, but not sure they can tag Painted Cave due to the building onshore flow?
You need to tag Nordhoff then Painted Cave to extend the out and back record from Ojai:
http://paraglide.net/amigo/mitch_riley/2017_10-24/nordhoff_to_painted_cave_n_back.htm
JLo's 4/24 flight last spring was longer, but he turned at La Cumbre Peak, not Painted Cave.
The lazy option is to launch from the Skyport or EJ, then tag the Windmill before turning to head eastbound.

After Fillmore there are a several route options. You can continue up the river, but the better options are likely crossing the river east of Fillmore toward Simi Valley. The inland valleys (Simi, San Fernando, Kagel) are draining offshore early but switch onshore late in the day. If you can find one more climb south of the Santa Clara, you can reach for Malibu or Santa Monica but expect west wind down lower. You might choose to follow the convergence eastbound toward Northridge with the intent of crossing Interstate 5 at the Newhall Pass toward Sylmar and Kagel. Not sure what the distance potential is because you might need to slow down and wait for the east wind to back off? And the high clouds could be an issue late in the day as the sun angle gets low?

Sunday doesn’t have high clouds. The lapse rate appears weaker as the onshore flow pulls in for lower surface temperatures, but the early lapse rate might be good enough to get over Casitas Pass and away from the ocean.
NW wind in SB could be an issue?

Monday looks inverted.

I don’t think going OTB Saturday or Sunday offers an advantage due to increasing north wind up higher.

Our coastal cliffs don’t look promising this weekend based on Windy