Weak Mid-April Weekend 2023

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Thursday Night Perception of the weekend

Today (Thursday) had a thick but dry-ish (compared to yesterday) marine layer mid-day with a pronounced capping inversion above. The lapse rate down lower in the marine layer below the inversion was good. Cloudbase rose through the day but got perhaps too thick later in the afternoon. Pilots launching from the VOR had mixed results. DP made it work from the Skyport, landing at the beach in Carpinteria (Linden Field).
There was some occasional mid-day thermal bluster in Carpinteria, but it was mostly light so I suspect Bates was too weak? The wind did pull in late in the day from the SE so perhaps Bates had a late window?

Tomorrow (Friday). Looks flyable locally (SB). Drier but with a weak lapse rate below 3K and inverted above. Ojai looks a little better but sub-par. Fillmore looks better, but only up to about 3500.

Saturday continues to look inverted in the SB mountains.
Ojai looks better later in the day as does Fillmore which might be good enough to claw up San Cayetano Ridge and reach for Ojai, but the altitude isn’t great so crossing from Santa Paula Ridge to the spines running SE down toward the Santa Paula Creek looks iffy. Surface flow should be upriver (from the west) but up at 3 to 5K it looks SSE with more south to SW down lower and more SE up higher.
Saturday looks more promising for the coastal cliffs. Light from the SW with more wind later in the day. Ventura Avenue looks like it should work later in the afternoon also.

Sunday is similar to Saturday, warmer on the surface, but also warmer aloft, so perhaps a bit weaker. Sunday also has potential for some thin high clouds later in the day.
Santa Barbara looks a bit better than Saturday, but still weak
Ojai and Fillmore look weaker than Saturday, but not by much.
Sunday has a lot of mid-channel wind from the west, but Windy doesn’t think it will pull in all the way to Bates. Ventura Avenue might be an option.

In summary, it appears like a weak weekend, with
Fillmore offering perhaps the best semi-local potential for a 1 PM launch from Upper Oat on Saturday, crossing the Sespe River and trying to work uphill along San Cayetano Ridge.
I suspect the Nuthouse will also work on Saturday and Sunday, but I don’t recommend launching before 1 PM.
Santa Barbara looks inverted on Saturday and weak on Sunday. Friday looks weak but perhaps good enough down in the marine layer under the inversion.
For the coastal cliffs, Windy thinks Saturday afternoon offers the best potential?