Pine Mid July 2022

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Pine Mid July 2022

Postby sd » Fri Jul 15, 2022 6:36 pm

Friday evening look at Saturday (updated at 8:45 PM on Friday after looking at the 00z models)

Today (Friday) had some monsoon moisture and wind from the SE that often coincides with monsoon moisture. The development was much more pronounced to the east with less development over Lockwood Valley.

Tomorrow (Saturday) is similar but with less east influence, but still significant flow from the south. Try to avoid the stiff SW fill flow down low that will be spilling across Canyon Country into the eastern portion of the Antelope Valley. Seems like the route would be up the north side of the Antelope Valley, especially once you get a dozen miles past interstate 5. There is some development forecasted for Lockwood Valley.

When going to Pine mid-July, I recommend being ready to launch by 11, even if you don’t launch till later, because it can get strong on launch from the SE, especially when there is some SE in the forecast.

The instability looks good (but not ballistic) …

8:45 Friday Evening Update:
Based on a look at the 00Z (5 PDT) NAM Skew-t graphs, there appears to be some initial flow from the SE around Pine that gives way to flow from the SW later in the day. There will likely be some development over Lockwood with cloudbase around 14K. The development does not look very thick, with initial strato-cumulus building some vertically later in the afternoon, but not enough to rain? It will likely be easier to go east later in the day after the SE relaxes and gives way to flow from the SW. East of Lockwood and into the Antelope Valley it looks blue. The lift in the antelope valley does not go as high as Lockwood. The west does try to push through at the lower altitudes later in the day (quite stiff down low in the Antelope), but up higher the SE is persistent. Expect more development east of Edwards. Recommend the north side of the Antelope Valley once you get a dozen miles into the valley, but down low there appears to be some stable NW wind spilling into the antelope from the San Joaquin Valley, so the better route is likely toward the NE, but over the flats and not up over the Tehachapi Mountains. The east wind will likely be problematic at times, but the west does try to push though late in the day, so have patience and try to stay in the game…
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