Mid-April Fading Post-Frontal Workweek 2022

Past, present, and future flights, meeting times & places, theory.

Moderator: Moderation Team

Mid-April Fading Post-Frontal Workweek 2022

Postby sd » Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:10 am

Thursday Morning Update:

The forecast has evolved.
Yesterday (Wednesday) was a late start due to north wind that backed off some through the day. The north wind also capped the altitude early and pushed the course line down low and out front. Yesterday worked good (trending better) late in the day. Early thermals in SB were weak with altitudes in the low 3s, but mid-afternoon in Ojai was robust with altitudes above 6K.

Today (Thursday) looks like a little less wind early and trending more stable this afternoon, so it might work better earlier, but there is still notable wind from OTB along the ridge this morning that will likely block.

Go to Know?

Wednesday Morning Update:

The north wind and lapse rate fade through Friday then another dry cold airmass arrives Friday Night and Saturday to stir it up again, but less robust than this past Monday’s event.

Yesterday (Tuesday) was somewhat of a tease with a robust lapse rate and stiff north wind. For the most part the north prevailed but there were intermittent thermal pulses drawing the flow onshore for short durations. Bates had a number of short windows but was mostly blowing offshore in the afternoon. A couple of morning PG pilots did get high at Bates before the NW pushed through. The Rincon coast was more protected and drawing in onshore down low most of the day.

Today (Wednesday) may be the best option? Yesterday I thought Thursday looked like a better balance of lapse rate and wind, but both seem to be fading faster than anticipated, so if it blocks, I think today may be the better option. (blame it on Garcia because he has to work on Thursday).
The lapse rate gets better through the day and the wind at soaring altitude backs off through the day on the east end of the course but eventually builds from the NW in Santa Barbara later in the day. I suspect the day will work good late in the day on the east end of course. SB should get better through early afternoon before the late day NW starts to dominate. I expect there will be stiff upriver (Santa Clara) flow down low despite only mild wind late in the day above Fillmore at higher altitudes.

Tomorrow (Thursday) has less wind but also a weaker lapse rate.

Friday looks flyable but the lapse rate is weaker still and there may be some marine stratus in the morning.

Saturday has an improving lapse rate and increasing wind as another trough (dry cold front?) moves through, but the event may be manageable. The wind has less of a north component so the coastal cliffs may work?

Tuesday Morning Assessment
A cold front passed through yesterday (Monday) leaving north wind and cold air in its wake. The exciting weather should last though the workweek with perhaps Thursday offering the best balance (on paper as of the current forecasts) if you can only schedule one day away from the office?
Logan’s local record open distance flight to San Dimas was on 4/18
while Dilan’s epic flight to Santa Monica was at the end of March

Today (Tuesday)
At first glance it may seem like too much north wind, but the ballistic lapse rate at the lower altitude coupled with the seasonal sun angle on our south facing range should result in strong thermal cycles that produce robust local draw and possibly some degree of wide spread blockage (perhaps transient and intermittent)? The wind backs off some in the afternoon, but still strong enough in places that the conditions are not recommended for casual weekend pilots. If you do fly today, play the day and don’t expect to go far on a PG, but the HGs could have impressive flights (Willy?) with the top of the lift in the afternoon rising above 6K.

Bates is hard to predict. It blew extra hard yesterday, but pilots did fly in the window before the wind came in hard and strong. With the good lapse rate and lower level thermal draw toward the mountains there may be a window to pop up and across the freeway toward Ventura?

Tomorrow (Wednesday)
The lapse rate fades but the wind does also. The wind is still an issue, but it will likely block and be flyable from the lower launches by mid-day. Flights toward the interstate may be possible if you can get up and away from SB under the wind.

Thursday looks like a good balance of less wind and a good local lapse rate for flights toward the interstate.

Friday is far enough out that the confidence is low due to timing, but currently Friday looks like a nice flying day locally in SB trending toward seasonal norms with a weak lapse rate, but not inverted so flyable with light wind early so less hazardous? Friday’s forecast is predicting increasing flow from the west in the afternoon followed by low pressure on Saturday before high pressure returns on Sunday and Monday.
FYI: Today marks the 50th anniversary of my 1st solo flight on April 12, 1972
Tom's flight log page 1 / 1st solo 4/12/1972

They say there are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old bold pilots…
I watched a documentary about Bob Hoover last night. BH was still flying and doing aerobatic routines at age 85. I think there a plenty of old bold pilots.
Last edited by sd on Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:53 am, edited 9 times in total.
User avatar
Posts: 446
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2006 10:30 pm

Re: Mid-April Fading Post-Frontal Workweek 2022

Postby LNW » Tue Apr 12, 2022 10:18 am

Nice Tom, looking forward to flying with you. Bob Hoover was one of the greatest ever. I have often thought about his crash stories in parallel with yours.

Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:51 pm

Return to Flight Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests