2nd Weekend in April 2022

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2nd Weekend in April 2022

Postby sd » Fri Apr 08, 2022 7:07 pm

Saturday Morning Update

We have some wind around Point Conception that is spilling over our local SB ridgeline early, but as the day heats the forecast is projecting the wind to back off at the lower altitudes and to the east by mid-day. Expecting local flow from the west mid-day, clocking around to come from the NW later in the afternoon.

With the removal of Fridays high pressure compressional heating it is cooler on the surface than Friday, but the lapse rate is still positive. It is still warm a altitude, so no need for a heavy jacket.

Ojai has more protection from the wind and a better lapse rate if you are inclined to hike.

The lapse rate around Fillmore looks ok, but expect significant quenching upriver flow at the lower levels by mid-afternoon.

The Owens Hike and Fly competitors will likely want to stay low and out front to avoid the WNW wind increasing with altitude.

On Sunday, Fillmore’s lapse rate looks better than Santa Barbara with some East/West convergence potential near Fillmore

Friday evening review

Today Friday, was likely the best opportunity of the weekend with hot surface temps and an impressive lapse rate. There was east flow early giving way to some west in the afternoon. BK did an impressive hike and fly, going OTB from EJ with good altitude part way toward Little Pine, then a 3 hour hike up to the west end of Little Pine where he launched and got up and back out to Sage. The Avenue (Ventura) switched and turned on for a while with Kayla showing the more experience pilots (like me) how to do it, staying up well above launch for an hour-ish before the east pushed back through at altitude and shut it down around 5:30. I heard rumors that some pilots went to Fillmore only to encounter too much east wind early?

Tomorrow (Saturday) cools off quickly with flow from the west and some wind from the NW at altitude. The lapse rate is weaker but maybe still good enough. If you can claw your way past Castle Ridge you can likely make to Fillmore or Piru. On paper the SB lapse rate looks better in the afternoon, but there is also a more wind (mid to upper single digits increasing with altitude) from the west that might gnaw and break up the weak thermals? Likely to much NW wind for the higher launches like Pine, but Ojai should work better than SB if you are willing to hike, and the Avenue looks better (more conventional) than today? Saturday looks better than Sunday.

Sunday cools off even more and the lapse rate looks weaker by not inverted. Likely flyable in SB but too much wind for Pine and Plowshare? Ojai looks better than SB but not good enough to justify a hike?
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