1st Spring Weekend 2022

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1st Spring Weekend 2022

Postby sd » Fri Mar 25, 2022 8:30 am

Sunday Morning Update:

The approaching rain arrival has slowed (more in alignment with the NAM model) which should be good news for our water supply because the slower progression is forecasted to yield more rain than previous forecast, now projected to be 1 to 2.5 inches in the flats and 2 to 4 inches along our south facing mountains, to arrive around dawn tomorrow (Monday)

The airmass is cooling with a robust mid-level lapse rate, but the lower level lapse rate continues to look unimpressive to inverted above a shallow marine layer (not typical of prefrontal conditions? prefrontal is often unstable down low). Expect increasing clouds through the day.

The south wind should increase but expect an increasing easterly component as the lower level heavy air is steered to venturi around the corners, so more wind and more east toward the west.

Today (Sunday) not a promising mountain day

Our Local SB mountains look too windy from the ESE, but

San Cayetano Ridge in Fillmore may be an option. Dave and Johannes at great flights yesterday in weak conditions, but they likely could have done the same flight driving up to and launching from Oat (on the east / other side of the Sespe). The objective yesterday was to scout and pioneer a new launch somewhere along San Cayetano Ridge, on the west side of the Sespe, which will permit us to fly in much more SE wind (like today). Don’t expect to go far from Fillmore today (due to the poor lapse rate), but it will likely be flyable and locally soarable (ridge lift) for short XC flights for seasoned pilots (not suitable for P2s).

You can safely fly San Cayetano Ridge in much more SE wind than SB due to the smoother topography (of San Cayetano), plus, there will likely be less wind in Fillmore than the SB mountains today…

Currently La Cumbre Peak is blowing hard (at dawn) but there is currently much less wind in Fillmore.

The more cost-effective option today might our various coastal cliffs
Bates or perhaps the east end of Shoreline Park (Chad has flown there on SE days) or maybe the cliffs between Butterfly and East Beach? And More Mesa. Low tide is around 2 o-clock, so good fortune in that timing.

Monday looks wet (steady rain) and windy from the south

Tuesday looks post frontal with wind from the north

Friday Morning look at our first Springtime Weekend of 2022…

The good news: rain likely (we need some rain) sometime between Sunday night and Tuesday with the timing still in question depending on which model you look at.

The bad news: the reason for the pending rain has more to do with a warm front (flow of warm moist air from the south) than a cold front. Our local lapse rate looks unimpressive until we go post-frontal. The frontal passage will have significant wind is from the south, or ESE as you get closer to Point Conception (the wind will be steered and accelerated in the venturi around the corner). The scenario translates into poor flying in our local mountains, but there may be some ridge lift opportunities, and the sites further east (Ojai and Fillmore) will have less “steering influence” from Point Conception and a better lapse rate, but they too will be influenced by the wide-spread bands of high clouds.

The forecast is calling for about 6 hours of steady rain with some instability showers on the back side. The pre-frontal instability is mostly at altitudes too high to reach from our front range.

Today (Friday) looks like the best day until Tuesday or Wednesday, but not in our local SB mountains. The “marine layer” is shallow, which is not a good thing for our local mountains but might be for Elings?

Ojai has a better lapse rate and the wind looks manageable, but you will need to hike.

Fillmore looks like it will work. You don’t need to hike, but you do need some logistics to get to launch (or you can hike without logistics?).

Ventura Avenue looks like it might work by mid-afternoon. Not a stellar day, but a low investment in time and energy. Some pilots have been asking for a site intro. I could guide this afternoon if there is interest. The Avenue isn’t as “big” as Sage, but might work better today, so if you are Ventura pilot and want a site intro? The Avenue is an easy P2 site.

Sage and Happy Canyon typically work when the valley draws onshore from the west? I don’t have the knowledge or experience to offer a useful prediction on how they will work this afternoon.

Our Coastal Cliffs look on the weak side, but better today than tomorrow, so maybe?

Pine has a better lapse rate but likely too much wind from the south and not worth the hike to check it out?

Saturday (Tomorrow), the lower level lapse rate fades everywhere but is still better in Ojai and Fillmore than SB. I don’t think Ojai is worth the hike, so I’d recommend Fillmore. Our coastal cliffs look weak but Elings might work? I don’t recommend our local mountains, but if you must, then Jay’s-Nub or the Back-of-the-Rack?

Sunday has more wind from the SE as the front approaches (pre-frontal). Our coastal cliffs might work if the direction isn’t too cross from the east. Don’t recommend the SB mountains on Sunday. The afternoon lapse rate in Fillmore is ok up to about 4K. Fillmore also has some wind to contend with, but the San Cayetano Ridge is big and faces a good direction for the conditions?

Monday looks like rain, but the timing is still in question.
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