Post St Patrick Weekend 2022

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Post St Patrick Weekend 2022

Postby sd » Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:59 pm

Saturday Morning Update:

The frontal passage might be a little later than previously forecasted and the lapse rate in the mountains a little better… so…

Today (Saturday) the mountains might offer a narrow window to get off from the lower launches, downrange to Castle Ridge, then up and out to reach for the Rincon Coast as the wind starts to pull in?

We still have significant cloud cover to content with, but they are forecasted to thin some mid-day before building later in the day with a chance of light rain.

At dawn the clouds are mostly high and the wind light from the ENE. The high clouds will hopefully thin some before clumping at lower altitudes (6K) and the east wind should give way to building wind from the west.

Bates continues to look promising this afternoon…

Sunday and Monday continue to look too windy (from the north) for PGs in our local mountains

Tuesday looks promising… / hot high pressure but with NE flow we have some protection locally.

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Thursday Night Look at the Pending Weekend

Friday (mid-day tomorrow) might be the best weekend option to fly the mountains. The lapse rate looks weak, but the wind is light, from the east in the morning giving way to some west in the afternoon. Timing will be important (mid-day through early afternoon?). The early afternoon west is forecast to be low single digits building toward upper single digits late in the day. The lapse rate is weak but not inverted. If the wind stays low it might work, and there could be some convergence over La Cumber Peak? No need to dress warm, and it will probably be good to launch high and be loaded light?

The coastal cliffs do not look promising tomorrow (Friday).

Saturday is forecasted to have a dry-ish cold front pass through with a chance of light rain. The mountains look shady and windy. The morning lapse rate is unimpressive but gets better in the afternoon. Not sure it will be good enough to work from the lower launches with some west wind and possible OD?

Bates will likely offer a window for flights to Ventura sometime Saturday afternoon?

Sunday looks drier but not promising with significant post frontal north wind. There is a low morning inversion that raises some in the afternoon yielding a good lapse rate up to about 3K. The afternoon weak and low capping inversion may offer some protection from the north wind across the ridgeline, but maybe not enough protection?

Bates might offer a narrow window, but with strong wind from the north up higher Bates can be fickle and might too cross if and when the wind does pull in or push through?
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