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2nd Weekend in March, 2022

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:10 pm
by sd
Saturday Morning Update

The lapse rate continues to look weak but positive. It is oozing light katabatic offshore locally at dawn, which has hopefully kept the cooler ocean air above the 55 degree water out of the foothills. Without much of a morning inversion or significant early north wind it should be launchable early. There is no capping inversion, so max altitude will vary with the height of the terrain. The west is forecast to start pulling in by mid-day so the thermals will likely be better early on the SB side of Casitas Pass before the building west starts winning the balance? If you can get past Castle Ridge you can likely get to Fillmore, but slow down past Power Line Ridge and try to up and over Casitas Pass rather than through it?

Bates looks like it might work this afternoon, but Bates can be fickle as the channel wind sometimes just teases us with caps just offshore.

Friday Night Look at the Weekend
Friday’s Santa Anna is fading and giving way to onshore quenching flow on Sunday

Saturday (tomorrow) looks like the best opportunity for the short term. The wind starts out light then builds from the west in the afternoon. Saturday’s lapse rate appears weaker than today (Friday) but hopefully still good enough to get past Castle Ridge? Multiple pilots were able to reach the Power Line Crossing today, and Wolfie sort of squeaked through most of Casitas Pass (his longest flight from SB), but the altitudes were perhaps marginal? The lapse rate gets better if you can get into Ojai. There is an argument that the best option for the day might be to launch in Ojai and start with a longer westbound leg toward SB, but I’m not a good hiker so I’ll opt for a paved road to launch. There is some remaining Santa Anna drainage down the Santa Clara River early that gives way to on-shore upriver flow later in the day. The west builds in SB in the afternoon, so recommend moving east before the wind starts to gnaw at the weak thermals. It looks soarable by 10ish or earlier. Recommend a short westbound leg then eastbound open distance. I suspect returning upwind to SB will be problematic later in the day.

Daylight savings time starts Sunday, so we need to be on the early clock for Saturday. 8:30 to 8:45ish at East Beach?

Sunday has significant north wind but a robust afternoon lapse rate. Not sure if it will block in SB but Ojai should offer more protection from the north wind?

Bates is a maybe in the afternoon both Saturday and Sunday