3rd Weekend in December 2021

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3rd Weekend in December 2021

Postby sd » Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:40 pm

Friday Morning Update:

Today, (Friday) could be a good day for laps in the extended fishbowl. The lapse rate is substantially weaker than yesterday’s (Thursday’s) robust temperature profile, but still on the good side through today, fading through the weekend. The lapse rate improves some through mid-day to early afternoon as the surface heats. Top of the lift looks like low to mid 5s in SB. A shifting east / west convergence could boost localized mid-day altitudes. Chilly but not cold. The afternoon 6K temperature is in the lower 40s. Local surface temperatures are forecasted to be in the low 60s. Sunny with no sign of high clouds.

Santa Barbara seems like the sweet spot today, sheltered from the NE wind.

Expect progressively more headwind toward to the east, but even in Ojai the low-level flow should draw in from the west. Stay low on your eastbound legs and high on your westbound legs.

Should be able to launch early-ish. But the day looks better mid-day and continues to hang on weak late in the day.

Saturday (tomorrow) the lapse rate fades but it is not inverted, and the wind also seems less. There is less threat of high clouds on Saturday than yesterday’s forecast suggested. Could be a nice flying day, but weaker lift than today.

Sunday still looks like it is trending pre-frontal with building wind form the SE and a weak lapse rate.

Monday has stronger wind from the SE and high clouds.

Thursday Night look at the coming weekend.

Last weekend the weather was on the good side and the flights were wow.
Not so much this weekend? The weather is in transition from wet unstable frontal passage to brief drying high pressure post frontal that clocks around quickly to come from the NE on Friday, more so to the east, then backing down on Saturday with a fading lapse rate and potential for high clouds, then continuing to clock around to come from the SSE, which is typical of pre-frontal.

Friday (tomorrow): what we get on the front range varies widely with which model you look at. All the models are showing varying amounts of Santa Anna style NE wind to the east, but most of the models are also showing varying amounts of flow from the west down low along the Santa Barbara front range. Santa Barbara blocks a NE wind pretty good. We don’t block a SE very well. Last Saturday had some SE and you couldn’t get below it at our soaring altitudes.

Friday’s lapse rate looks ok but not robust. The lapse rate look good down low, which is good if you are trying to stay low to avoid upper level wind?

Go to know? My perception is that Friday might be the better day locally, but stuck in the fishbowl, unable to go very far east?

Ojai could be an option, but you would need to hike, and the day doesn’t look good enough to me to hike.
With a better lapse rate down low and increasing wind with altitude, Pine does not look like a good call on Friday.
Windy thinks the coastal cliffs are a maybe for a short window of Friday.

Saturday, the NE wind backs down but the lower level lapse rate fades as the atmosphere warms. The low-level lapse rate looks weak but not inverted. Saturday looks like it has potential for high clouds. Mellow P2 weather in Santa Barbara? Ojai doesn’t look like it is worth the hike, but Pine might be?

Sunday, the high clouds are gone. The low-level lapse rate looks ok with a mild capping inversion above. The wind clocks around and starts building from the SE down low and the SW up higher. Santa Barbara does not block a SE very well. There is less wind in Ojai, but likely not worth the hike. The wind is increasing with altitude, so Pine does not look good, plus the lapse rate at Pine looks poor on Sunday.
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