2nd Weekend in December 2021

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2nd Weekend in December 2021

Postby sd » Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:19 pm

Saturday Morning Update

Today, Saturday looks like another good day.

There is some morning offshore mild high-pressure Santa Anna type katabatic flow, but it is channeled, and our local range is sheltered. Yesterday’s upper-level mild north flow has been replaced by upper-level light and variable to light SE depending on which model you prefer. The early channeled drainage reverses to pull light up the Santa Clara River in the afternoon.

The 6K temperature has warmed some with a mild capping inversion above. The NAM skew-t forecast suggests the lift won’t go as high as yesterday, but my estimated for yesterday was a thousand too low, so…go to know? The skew-t forecast suggest we cold have a few thin high clouds late in the day.

The lower level airmass is cold, so there will be some sharp differential heating. The low-level lapse rate is robust then fades some late in the day, but the late day wind looks light so it should hold together.

I expect it will be launchable and soarable early from all the launches. No need to go high unless you want more elbow room?

Sunday is looking better than it was in previous forecast and now appears to be a good day down low in Santa Barbara.

Monday continues to look problematic from a flying perspective, but the heavy rain won’t arrive until Tuesday.

Friday Morning Update:

The current forecast is evolving in reasonably alignment with prior perceptions:

Today (Friday) continues to look like a good day. The north venturi across the Santa Barbara mountain ridgeline is already backing down. The thin high clouds may linger into late morning but should evaporate before noonish. The lower level lapse rate looks good to robust, but doesn’t go very high, maybe low to mid 4s in Santa Barbara and mid-5s through Ojai. You can launch early down lower from the Skyport, but expect the day to work better as we approach mid-day and even better through early afternoon. The good lapse rate pulls in a little quenching onshore flow from the SW later in the afternoon, so the late day lift looks weak but still soarable. Not much need to launch high today. The building late day east wind looks a little stronger in this morning's models but may not be much of a factor as it arrives late.

Tomorrow (Saturday) looks good also. Less wind. You can likely get on course earlier but the top of the lift looks lower.

Sunday looks weak but still good up to about 3Kish.

Monday and Tuesday bring stiff wind and heavy rain
Thursday Night look at Friday through Sunday

Friday and Saturday look like the better days. Recommend launching from Santa Barbara. The temperatures are chilly, but only down into the mid to high 30 at our soaring altitudes. The Skew-t shows some early potential for thin high clouds on Friday, but the upper altitude trend is drying and by the afternoon the high cloud threat has evaporated.

The Post Frontal wind backs down along with Thursday’s robust lapse rate. The day starts out a little slow due to chilly overnight surface low temperatures and some remaining moisture, but bubbles up mid-day. The mid-day through mid-afternoon lower level lapse rate looks good to robust, but only up to about 5K. There is some mild morning flow from the north which may be compressed and amplified across the ridge line early. The lower level wind down in our working altitude is light by mid-day and stronger from the north up higher. The wind continues to clock around to come light from the east by the end of the day. Ojai looks similar with a slightly better lapse rate by the time you get there but don’t expect the lift to go much over 5K. The mid to late afternoon lapse rate in Fillmore looks good, but the wind is clocking around to come more from the east toward the east end of the course. The east wind is light enough that you can likely plug into Fillmore, which will likely be the end of the day due to clock limitations. The altitude doesn’t look good enough to bridge across the river toward Moorpark. Friday looks like it will work good late in the day.

Windy doesn’t look promising for Bates on Friday, perhaps due to the wind clocking around to come from the east?

Saturday is somewhat similar with some minor variations. The day looks like it might start a little earlier without the north wind and more of a light push from the west in the afternoon. Top of the lift looks a little lower so getting up and over Casitas Pass and into Ojai might be more challenging for lower performance gliders. Friday’s east wind appears to be gone, but the course is likely still clock limited.

The coastal cliffs look weak on Saturday, but more promising than Friday as the west pulls in. Likely better toward the west (More Mesa).

Sunday looks weaker and lower but not inverted. The wind is light onshore from the SW.
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