First Weekend in December 2021

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First Weekend in December 2021

Postby sd » Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:03 pm

Sunday Late Morning Update:

Today (Sunday) the wind seems to be less of an issue than previous forecast suggested? The day looks better later in both SB and Ojai

Santa Barbara looks like it will block down lower, but the lower level lapse continues to be weak. The lapse rate above 3K is much better but there is also north wind up at 5K.

Ojai has a better low-level lapse rate compared to SB, up higher (above 3K) they look about the same (lapse rate), but Ojai like has better wind protection?.

Tomorrow (Monday), shows more wind from the WNW increasing with altitude, and some high clouds. The lapse rate is weak but not inverted.

Tuesday looks better with much less wind and no high clouds. The SB lapse rate is on the weak side but not inverted.

Wednesday, has a similar weak lapse rate (not inverted) and building west wind increasing with altitude and a smattering of thin high clouds.


Saturday Morning Update:

The weather is unfolding in reasonable alignment with yesterday’s perception with some adjustments.

The marine layer clouds are forecasted to burn off earlier than yesterday. SB pilots did ok yesterday, so hopefully they will do better today, but expect the lift to be weak and not go very high. Elings will likely offer a window.

Pine continues to look like my best option, but the lapse rate has trended a tad weaker and the top of the lift now looks like in only goes to about 9K rather than the upper 9s. Most models are showing light base wind from the north in the low single digits, which typically blocks, but other some models are showing more push from the NW, so there is some potential we might need to use a north facing launch, but I think we will be able to get off from the south side and run a lap on the range.

Jeff Longcor has gone to Baldy (NE of Pasadena). Not sure if he is taking the chair lift or hiking up the whole way? Baldy is high (10K). The sounding profile looks similar to our local with a poor lapse rate down low and better up high, but also more wind up higher, so he might need to launch below the top. The mountains are high enough they should block the north down at the medium altitudes above the lower level more stable air.

Friday Afternoon look at the weekend:

I recommend Pine on Saturday, Ojai on Sunday, and alternate activity other than mountain flying on Monday. Saturday at Pine looks like the best option for the weekend.

Today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) are somewhat similar to yesterday with some variation, then a shift occurs on Sunday with offshore flow from the north, stronger toward the west. On Monday the north increases along with high clouds.

Saturday: The lapse rate is better further inland and up higher.

Pine looks good into the upper 9s or 10K on Saturday. There is a little north wind but light enough that I think it will be launchable from the south side due to the good lapse rate and sun exposure.

Ojai looks ok-ish, but the lapse rate is weaker than Pine and not so good down low.

Figueroa has a similar temperature profile compared to Ojai on Saturday, but it is lower and more exposed to the ocean, and further west so more exposed to building flow from the NW toward the west end of our region.

Santa Barbara’s mountains look flyable through Saturday, but the marine layer and associated low level inversion are at a problematic depth, too low to work down in it (except for Elings?) and too high to get above it from the Skyport and EJ?

Sunday the temperature and wind increase as high pressure builds.

Ojai’s Sunday lapse rate is better down lower compared to Saturday, and Ojai has more protection from the north wind than Pine or Santa Barbara.

Santa Barbara’s lapse rate improves, but the north wind will be an issue and may not block enough?

Pine looks like it has too much north wind on Sunday due to its higher altitude, and the lapse rate fades above 6K, so it looks like it works better down lower.

Figueroa looks like it has too much north wind on Sunday due to being further west.
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