Extended Thanksgiving Weekend 2021

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Extended Thanksgiving Weekend 2021

Postby sd » Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:13 am

Monday Morning Update:

The weather continues to evolve in somewhat reasonable alignment with prior forecast. High pressure and various degrees of dry offshore flow will continue to persist through the week with today offering somewhat of a lull before the east wind kicks up a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Today (Monday) looks like the best day since last Wednesday (but Wednesday was quite different than today). The lapse rate is improved compared to the past weekend while the east wind continues to be light to variable up through higher altitudes before it cranks up again tonight and tomorrow.

Pine looks like the best call today. With a better lapse rate than yesterday (above average approaching robust) and light base wind (but the various models do differ on how much) expect the lift to go higher (they go to 10K yesterday and had easy glides back to Nordhoff HS leaving from 9ish…) Yesterday looked better later in the day, but today looks better earlier. Yesterday, the wind was backing off late in the day while the lapse rate was improving late. Today there is a little north wind building late in the day while the lapse rate backs off later in the afternoon. Prime time will likely be around 1 PM but it should be soarable before noon, maybe as early as 11ish. There is a remote possibility we may need to use one of the north launches, but I think we can get off from the south side.

You don’t need to land at Nordhoff HS. The front range should work good enough in Ojai that you can soar around the Topa Mountains or work your way up toward and possibly over Casitas Pass, which would put you in reach of the beach on glide.

Ojai also looks better than yesterday with an ok lapse rate and light wind. Likely from the SW down low but light and variable up higher.

Santa Barbara looks flyable today, but perhaps not so good down low. The models indicate some lower level flow from the SW toward the west.

Tuesday (tomorrow) the Santa Anna wind kicks back in. Likely to much for Pine but maybe manageable in Ojai which has a robust lapse rate offering a route westbound. Santa Barbara might work better than today with less quenching onshore flow.

Saturday night look at Sunday

Based on some of the inReach tracks, today (Saturday) appeared weak in Santa Barbara?

Tomorrow (Sunday) looks a little better with perhaps a slightly better lapse rate and no high clouds. The broad flow is light offshore from the east decreasing through the day to come onshore from the WSW down low in SB late in the day.

Santa Barbara looks like it will work but on the weak side. There is some light wind from the east early.

Ojai looks better than SB with a better lapse rate due to more protection from the ocean so it should get warmer by 6 or 7 degrees F.

Pine looks better still with decreasing light wind from the east. The south launch will likely work. Not sure how high the lift will go. No capping inversion, but the lapse rate is only average, improving through the day. Maybe 9K? Not sure it will be enough to clear the front range without the tail wind from the north they had on Wednesday...

The Coastal Cliffs don't look promising tomorrow. Bates has been weak for awhile but there might be more umph further west at More Mesa?

The lapse rate appears to be getting better through Tuesday...

Thursday Morning Perception:

The weather is like a fingerprint. No 2 days are the same. After yesterday’s (Wednesday’s) epic flights from Pine, there has been some interest in a repeat, however, today is quite different than yesterday and I wouldn’t recommend investing your precious time treking up to Pine today. The lapse rate is weaker and there is more wind. Based on Mike’s track from yesterday, it appears there was some north above the ridgeline (waiting on pilot reports)? Two very advanced pilots had epic flights, but others were not able to launch from the south side?

The best day for going inland and high looks like Sunday.

There is a stiff Santa Anna event today (Thursday), relaxing some tomorrow (Friday), and fading into a high-pressure ridge over the weekend yielding a persistent variation of east wind to the east and up higher. Santa Barbara looks mostly protected from the east flow down lower. It is dry down lower but there are some thin high clouds on Friday and less so on Saturday. The lapse rate starts out weak on Thursday and progressively gets better through the weekend.

With the clear dry air, it is warm during the day but chilly and inverted down low in the mornings so it may take awhile for the lower layer to heat and break the morning inversion.

Today (Thursday / Thanksgiving) starts off with nasty offshore flow out the Santa Clara River and further east.

Santa Barbara has stiff NE compression flow across the ridgeline this morning, but it is forecasted to block from the lower launches. There may be an opportunity for local mountain flights this afternoon down lower, or from Brotherhood earlier for advanced pilots. The lapse rate looks better in the afternoon with light onshore flow down low and stiffer east flow above the ridgeline.

Ojai and Pine both look too windy from the NE today…

Ventura Avenue might work later this afternoon:

Tomorrow (Black Friday) the wind relaxes some and the inland lapse rate improves later in the day, but there is potential for waves of thin high clouds which could be problematic.

Santa Barbara looks flyable from the lower launches with light flow from the west down low, clocking around to come from the NW near ridgeline and stiffer from the NNE up higher. The lapse rate is not impressive but not inverted.

Ojai has a better lapse rate in the afternoon, but the high clouds could be problematic?

Pine is looking possible with the best lapse rate, but top of the lift caps around 8500. Pine also has the high cloud issue and you might need to use one of the north launchs.

Saturday the east wind up higher continues to fade, and the potential for thin high clouds lingers, but perhaps not as thick as Friday

Santa Barbara looks flyable with a slightly improving lapse rate and persistent flow from the east.

Ojai looks flyable, but the lapse rate isn’t much better than Santa Barbara

Pine also looks flyable with a better lapse rate, but the top of the lift looks low. The south side looks launchable.

Sunday, is pretty far out, but the forecast models indicate the potential for thin high clouds evaporate while the lapse rate is incrementally better. The east flow is mild but widespread.

Santa Barbara looks ok on Sunday
Ojai and Pine look better and could offer potential for downwind legs.
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