Pre -Thanksgiving Weekend 2021

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Pre -Thanksgiving Weekend 2021

Postby sd » Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:14 am

Saturday Summary

Cedar launched from the Nuthouse before noon and got up a but didn’t bother to bench up before getting on course eastbound?
Nellie’s inReach shows her launching from the Pine North Side 6K Parking Lot but not getting up?
On their way back to town it looks like Mike Lester opted to experiment with one of our seldom used bunny hop launches off the side of the road above the North Fork of the Matilija Creek

3 pilots hiked up to and launched from Nordhoff Peak including Chris Diebold who bounced around for about an hour and a half after all 7 of the Chiefs pilots had flushed in the first wave of thin high clouds.

Dave Patterson got a thousand over launch from Chiefs reporting 5700, but he didn’t connect at the Repeater. Jo Hannes also got about 500 over Chiefs launch. A couple other pilots hung on for a while, Pilots launching later from Chiefs all flushed.

The inReach tracks from SB show sleaders? Was Chad able to validate the potential at Elings?

Friday Morning perception of the coming weekend

This past workweek has been persistently anemic with a poor lapse rate and morning low clouds burning off in the afternoon with various bands of high clouds overhead. The weekend weather is evolving rapidly as a couple of washed out cold fronts pass to our north. The forecast is calling for light wind from the west today accompanied but some high clouds, then the high clouds thin and the flow clocks around to come from the east, building through the weekend to a short but stiff Santa Anna event on Sunday. The wind continues to clock around to become more pre-frontal from the SE on Monday

Today (Friday) looks flyable in our local SB mountains but weak with light flow from the west down low and some NW up higher. A little better in Ojai but not enough to justify the extra cost of getting to launch. The coastal cliffs look weak but Elings may offer a window if your timing is right. Ventura Avenue might work later in the afternoon.

Tomorrow (Saturday), the flow clocks around in weak post frontal progression to come from the ENE. There is more wind to the east. The NAM skew-t forecasts indicate some high clouds, but the forecast discussion thinks the high clouds will be dissipating? The lapse rate is better but not robust.
Santa Barbara may have some morning low clouds (called for in various forecast narratives but not shown on the skew-t charts?). Any clouds should burn off early. The lapse rate improves during the day. The SB mountains look flyable but weak early. The wind is light from the east early and then light from the west down low later in the day but from the east up higher.
Ojai is looking better than SB on Saturday due to a better lapse rate. There is more east wind, but it is light early then building through the day. Possible high clouds could be a wild card? This time of year, the sun angle is low so even thin high clouds can be problematic.

Sunday, any high clouds are gone, and the Santa Anna event builds stiff and quick. The east wind could be an issue. There is more XC potential from Ojai, but the wind might be a bit much for greener pilots, so recommend Ojai for the seasoned XC pilots and early flights in SB for the newer mountain pilots.

Monday sees the direction continue to clock round to come more from the SE, somewhat pre-frontal. There could be a thin layer of mid-level clouds around 18K. SE flow is often stiffer toward the west as it compresses around the corner at Point Conception.
Santa Barbara’s lapse rate improves but the SE wind could be an issue.
Ojai has a better lapse rate and less wind.

Didn’t take a close look at Pine because it seems the increasing wind with altitude could be an issue?

I can’t fly on Sunday but would like to fly Ojai back toward SB on Saturday if someone with a truck is interested. We would need to get a permit today for the weekend.
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