Ladies Fly-in Weekend Weather

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Ladies Fly-in Weekend Weather

Postby sd » Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:36 am

Friday night look at Saturday:

Today (Friday), pilots flew Elings and More Mesa. Steve reported less wind in the mountains than was expected. Don’t know if anyone flew Bates but the west wind did finally sweep through around 3 PM…

Saturday, the evolution seems aligned with Thursday’s perception with the addition of significant morning moisture in the form of low clouds and drizzle. The lower level lapse rate is good, but heating will be limited in the morning, then there is potential for some west to NW wind in the afternoon. The wind will be stronger to the west. Ojai is more protected from the wind, but the Ojai lapse rate is unimpressive and the cost of getting to launches in Ojai is higher than SB. Unless you are training for next weekend’s hike and fly, I’d recommend timing for a lower launch in SB (Skyport or the Bypass if cloudbase is too low for the Skyport) when the clouds are starting to lift, but don’t wait until it is fully clear because the wind could be an issue in the afternoon. The lower level clouds burn off, lift, and get blown away, but the high clouds are persistent. I suspect prime time for our local SB mountains will be somewhere between noon and 2 PM. Watch for drying and lifting, but don’t wait for blue sky.

The coastal cliffs have more wind to the west. It looks like the wind will sweep through More Mesa around mid-day but the direction gets cross from the west as the wind builds.

Elings will likely have as soarable window late morning to mid-day just before the west wind sweeps through

Bates looks iffy with any wind arriving late, but there might be just enough umph sometime around mid-afternoon.

Rincon Mountain might be an Option, and
Ventura Avenue looks like it will work.

Sunday looks like it will likely be flyable in our local SB mountains, but the lapse rate is poor. The coastal cliffs look weak early but might be ok later in the day around mid-afternoon. Elings might be fun. Rincon Mountain looks good mid-afternoon and likely ridge-soarable along the Rincon Coast. Ventura Avenue looks like it will work late in the afternoon.
Thursday Summary

Yesterday, Thursday, Eagle did 2 rounds in the Santa Barbara Mountains and 3 pilots flew from Chiefs in Ojai...

Santa Barbara Thursday:

Posted by Austin Cantrell to the SBSA Telegram Chat on Thursday at 12:17
Landed at East Beach

Posted by Chris Garcia to the SBSA Telegram Chat on Thursday at 15:07
Fun day up there in the Eagle Van!
The first round was a struggle fest for sure. Light unorganized lift made it tough for most of the pilots to maintain. Neal and Carter worked it fairly well for nice fish bowl flights.

The second lap was a different story, we launched EJ again and pilots were getting up over 4k off launch. Little bit of E up there but nothing too dramatic. Mike Lester from Boulder headed down to VOR and is still airborn.

Thanks Jessica for driving 2 laps with the van today!!

Ojai Summary for Thursday.

Logan, Sophia, and SD went up to do a little launch cleanup prior to next Sunday’s Hike and Fly event. Logan gave 2 visiting pilots a ride to Chiefs. They launched around 1:30 to 2 PM and found smooth lift over the Middle Bump, getting maybe 3 to 500 over launch (low 5s?). We didn’t see where they ended up?

On our way down (after 4 PM) we noticed a glider flying out toward a field near Thatcher School. Later learned it was Francois Appere, who had hiked up to Chiefs from Thatcher School.

The mid-day wind was light, the lapse rate was ok, and the lift appeared smooth and organized with the heating somewhat moderated by high clouds that blocked some but not all of the sun.

Ventura Avenue Thursday. On my way home, connecting from Hwy 33 to the 101 a half hour prior to sunset, the palm trees were indicating significant west wind (15ish) at the Ventura River Mouth, but not sure how well it was moving up river toward the Ventura Avenue launch, but the Avenue does tend to work later in the afternoon this time of year as the wind accelerates around the end of the Rincon Coastal Range and up the rivers. I used to fly The Avenue daily (after work) in the early 80s (I lived on the SE side of the hill) and collected he nickname “The Sundowner”.

Coastal Cliffs Thursday? I didn't see or any reports
Thursday Morning Look through the coming weekend

The weather gods appear to have thrown our ladies less than optimal offerings? We are going to be influenced by a washed out cold front lobe associated with a strong low-pressure circulation that is moving down the west coast from Alaska toward the NW corner of Washington. There is some pending wind (starting tomorrow, Friday, and building through Saturday) but perhaps manageable. The wind will be stronger to the west and increasing with altitude. The airmass is cooling into the weekend, but there are significant and persistent high clouds that will limit the surface heating. The mountain flying looks better today (Thursday), maybe ok tomorrow (Friday) and progressively less attractive through the weekend. There may be some flying at the coastal cliffs as noted in the daily detail below.

Today (Thursday)
Santa Barbara mountains. The wind starts out light and then builds some from the west in the afternoon. The lapse rate starts out weak but positive and gets better through day. There are some high clouds to contend with.
Ojai looks like the better mountain option today with a better lapse rate and less afternoon wind compared to Santa Barbara. The combination of a decent lapse rate, moderated heating (high clouds), and light wind should make for pleasant flying in smoothish air.
The Coastal Cliffs look weak today

Friday (tomorrow)
Santa Barbara Mountains are a tough call. Building to NW wind and high clouds are an issue, but there might be a late morning to mid-day window where you can get off and ahead of the wind which is stronger to the west. Perhaps a bit much for P2s but possibly and XC opportunity for P4s and HGs?
Ojai is more sheltered from the west to NW wind but the lapse rate isn’t impressive.
The coastal cliffs look promising with west wind building from the west. Bates might be strong enough mid to late afternoon to get across the freeway and down the coast to Ventura. The mid-channel wind looks robust. More Mesa should work earlier but might get too strong in the afternoon.

The Santa Barbara mountains may work down low (below 3.5Kish) where the lapse rate is better and the wind is less. There is significant north wind up higher but a weak capping inversion between the upper 3s and the upper 5s should offer some protection down lower.
Ojai has more protection from the wind, but the lapse rate is poor, perhaps due to the high clouds? Likely not worth the extra cost of getting to launch.
The costal cliffs look like they may offer a window at More Mesa mid-day but appears too cross from the WNW later in the afternoon. Windy dot com currently doesn’t think the wind will push all the way to Bates, but confidence in Windy that far out is not high.

The WNW wind backs down some but the high clouds continue. The lapse rate deteriorates and looks poor.
Santa Barbara Mountains look flyable from the lower launches but perhaps not soarable?
Ojai does not look good on Sunday with a little west wind, high clouds, and a poor lapse rate.
The Coastal Cliffs look weak, but Ventura Avenue looks good late in the day.

Ventura Avenue appears to work late in the day through the period. It faces WNW and likes the late day sun angle and wind direction. Mostly ridge lift with some thermals mixed in. There are several launches. The higher launch is about 600 feet above the LZs. You access the high launch by hiking (sneaking) up the fire break behind (to the east of) the pistol range (staying out of sight). The hike up is about 350 hundred vertical? You can also hike up the front side from any of the LZs.

The best mountain flying through the period looks like today (Thursday) in Ojai.
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