1st cold front of 2021-22 season

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Monday Afternoon Update:

Sunday (yesterday) the wind was less than expected but still an issue and seemed to trump the weak lapse rate locally, scuffing off and breaking up the thermals, particularly down lower, near the coast, and later in the day. Ojai was likely stellar, but no one was able claw their way along Castle Ridge into Casitas Pass.

Some pilots launching from EJ early got over 5K, but then fizzled past Ramero. Pilots launching lower on round 1 had to go out to the Antenna Farm and struggled to bench back, eventually getting into the high 3s at the Thermal Factory, but by then nothing east of the Thermal Factory was working. Willy and Dave Patterson reached Padaro with Angela landing on the beach in Summerland. A number of pilots fizzled down around the Birnam Wood and Valley Club golf courses while others opted to land at East Beach.

By round 2 the west wind was more of an issue. Chris G got off from the Skyport and reported strong thermals but didn’t like the wind and flew out to East Beach. Another 5 pilots opted to go from West La Cumbre which had good launch conditions. Robert F and Val choose to anchor at Parma while Kevin bobbed into Park Lane. SD and Andrea followed last under their old slow tandem, but nothing east of the RnR was working so they opted for a downwind cruise to Summerland Beach. On vehicle retrieve, Robert F reported building wind up at West La Cumbre.

Ayvri Group Links for Sunday
Round 1
https://ayvri.com/scene/g0jg73pnjo/ckun72vnt0000256othgrkm1f
and round 2
https://ayvri.com/scene/g0jg73pnjo/ckun70wcw0001256qkbrl49qf

Today (Monday), the lapse rate was ballistic, but likely too much wind from the north for PGs…
Bates got windy but the wrong direction

Tuesday (tomorrow) the north wind diminishes some around mid-day, but likely still too much for most PGs. Some of the advanced PGs and the intermediate HGs might be able to launch from the north side Brotherhood. The lapse rate is ballistic. There is a lot of wind up high, but a significant capping inversion offers some protection below 6K, however the forecast is still calling for mid-teens from the north at 5K and there will likely be some venturi compression accelerating across the ridgeline. Note, pilots have flown HGs to Pt Magu launching from the north side on stronger wind days and to East Ventura on similar wind days.

Bates looks promising for flights to Ventura tomorrow (Tuesday)

Wednesday, the wind finally backs off, but not completely and the lapse rate isn’t nearly as good as Monday and Tuesday so the wind might get the better of the weak thermals? Somewhat similar to Sunday, but the wind is more from the north, so don’t know that West La Cumbre will work as good late in the day as it did on Sunday?

Thursday is pretty far out, but currently projecting a mild Santa Anna event with locally light offshore drainage from the NE then pulling in down lower from the WSW in the afternoon. Better lapse rate than Wednesday with potential convergence and locally good good altitude over La Cumbre Peak with the right timing?
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Sunday Morning Update:

Today (Sunday) and Tuesday look like the better days this weekend to go to know?
There is some variation in the models in terms of how much wind, which is from the west down low clocking around to come from the NW up higher. Likely less wind to the east. Recommend getting on course early and over Casitas Pass.

The local lapse rate in SB gets better up through early afternoon, but the west wind also increases approaching double digits. The altitude gets better over Casitas Pass and Ojai. Max altitude in Ojai looks like 7K early climbing to 8ish late in the day.

Fillmore has some morning diurnal offshore flow that switches to pull upriver in the afternoon. The late afternoon wind above the surface in Fillmore is light from the WNW and the lapse rate good.

Our coastal cliffs look weak from the west but maybe good enough?

The Owens Valley looks good below 10K with light wind but a poor lapse rate up higher.

I’m planning to fly tandem with Andrea on a slow low performance glider.

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Saturday Morning Update:

Yesterday (Friday), the day developed later than expected and the wind was less than forecasted. Bates started working early afternoon and was good until late in the day, but never strong enough to jump the freeway for a Ventura run. The mid-channel wind was less than 20 mid-afternoon and the Bates cliff was mostly in the low teens with a good direction early afternoon and an ok direction (from the SW) later in the day.

Multiple pilots flew from the Skyport and the Eliminator. They initially had to deal with low cloudbase around 3Kish, then as cloudbase rose and eventually evaporated to blue sky the building NW wind became an issue. Some pilots (Robert Millington and Austin Cantrell) were able to get up over Parma. Chris Diebold bounced around for about an hour and a half between the Antenna Farm, The Factory, the Holly Hills, and Parkers. Mike Harrington eventually connected to decent altitude. We were hoping he would fly by Bates, but 3rd hand reports indicate the building NW wind started gnawing at the thermal quality, so he angled out to land a Padaro.

Today (Saturday), the Nam Skew-Ts look like there might be too much wind in our local mountains for PGs, but the mid-morning observations show less wind and indicate it is currently breathing upslope from the SE at the lower launches? The fast HGs might opt for the north-side Brotherhood? A dry cold font is sweeping through with a forecasted sharp north wind event.

Windy is forecasting much more wind mid-channel today compared to yesterday, but maybe not pulling into Bates? Not a lot of confidence in Windy, so hopefully it will pull in good enough. More coastal wind to the west at More Mesa and Wilcox, but it might be strong and cross from the west? Ventura Avenue might work late in the afternoon.

Sunday (tomorrow) the morning wind backs down some, clocks around to come NE, and switches to diurnal Santa Anna offshore flow out the Santa Clara River that reverses and pulls upriver in the afternoon. We also have a very mild capping inversion between 8 and 14K that will hopefully offer some protection from the stronger upper level wind. Blue high pressure. The lapse rate at our SB altitudes looks good enough. There is some building upper single digit west wind forecasted in our local mountains with more wind to the west. The day looks like it has potential to reach the interstate, but timing is an issue. Hopefully it will turn on early, perhaps 10 or 11 am (it is still Daylight Savings Time)

Monday looks like another stiff north wind day, likely too much in our mountains for PGs but the HGs might have fun launching from the north side Brotherhood?

Tuesday looks promising with another iteration of the NE Santa Anna. There is wind up high but a sharp capping inversion between 6 and 12K should offer protection at our altitudes and the lower lapse rate looks impressive.

For the Owens Thermal Clinic. The Winds Aloft Forecast is calling for less north wind than we have down south, about 15 MPH at all altitudes today and less on Sunday. Today’s post frontal afternoon lapse rate looks good but tomorrow’s high pressure lapse rate looks poor above 10Kish?

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Friday Morning Perception Update:

Exciting weather offering multiple opportunities for more advanced pilots due to the gusto and wind. Advantage HGs?

Friday (Today) looks like the mountains will offer a mid to late morning window from the Skyport and Eliminator for advanced PGs before west wind sweeps through this afternoon. The wind is much stronger to the west, and also stronger over the ocean compared to the mountains.

Cloudbase and the lift look lower early (high 3s to low 4s) but the airmass dries, cloudbase rises, and the lift goes higher (5K+) this afternoon

The advanced pilots may be able to launch from the Skyport and get over Casitas Pass or reach out to the Rincon.

Bates looks like it will have a narrow window for PGs (somewhere around mid-day) to get up and across the freeway to La Conchita. Bates looks like it will work for HGs through the afternoon.

Saturday (tomorrow), another system sweeps through bringing a robust lapse rate. The system is dry but has some wind from the north to contend with. Both the mountains and Bates may offer windows. The wind at Bates looks later than today and arrives sharper and stronger?

Sunday is toned down some with a weaker but still positive lapse rate and less wind for a more expanded window in the mountains, but there is still some afternoon west wind to contend with. Sunday has some diurnal flow out the Santa Clara river in the morning that switches and pulls upriver in the afternoon.

Bates looks like it builds slower and more manageable for PGs on Sunday compared to Saturday with the wind eventually sweeping through later in the afternoon.

There is continued robust activity into the workweek…

Monday is forecasted to have a strong lapse rate up to a developing capping inversion around 5K. The wind is pretty stiff from the north, but depending on the evolving variables there might be a window of thermal block down below the inversion.

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Thursday late morning perception
In response to Robert Fitzgerald’s Telegram DM requesting an opinion on the Back of Rack today…

Robert, good morning.
Today, (Thursday) I think it is too windy and cross from the east for paragliding in our local mountains. The Back of the Rack along east Camino Cielo can be an option in SE wind, but not always. Also, the lapse rate above the marine layer today is not very good, and from my view in Carpinteria the back ridge is in the clouds?

The east facing coastal cliffs might work. It’s currently a little weak for the direction (cross from the east). The direction might improve later today, but I don’t have much confidence in the velocity. The tide is currently high but going out, so maybe later this afternoon?

The lapse rate down low is ok, so Elings might offer a window, but it doesn’t look like we will get much heating?

Friday (tomorrow), looks more promising. The wind clocks around to come from the west and the lapse rate is much better. The forecast is calling for moisture early, but later in the day appears drier? Bates should work tomorrow with flights to Ventura likely, but you want to time it to be airborne before the wind builds too much. Looks like some wind in the mountains but not as much as on the coast. If you can get off early enough and over Casitas Pass then Ojai has much less wind in the afternoon. Caution? Friday afternoon is post-frontal and the winds up high in the Jet Stream are blowing well over 100 MPH.

Saturday has a good afternoon lapse rate, but maybe a bit much wind from the north? Not sure about the coastal cliffs on Friday. The wind builds sharp and hard, and when it does come in it might be too cross from the west?

Sunday looks like it might have some potential as the lapse rate holds and the wind backs way down and clocks around to come from the west, so there is likely potential to get on course eastbound.