Start of October 2021 / 1st Santa Anna

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Start of October 2021 / 1st Santa Anna

Postby sd » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:22 am

Sunday Morning Perception Update:

Somewhat of a continuation of the past couple days with minor but significant variation.

Today’s (Sunday’s) lapse rate is robust, stronger on paper than Friday or Saturday. The marine layer is squashed low, but there was some marine influence in SB later in the day yesterday. Ojai should work late. The east wind persists, but less early in the day than yesterday. The SE wind is increasing with altitude offering perhaps good open distance potential form Ojai, but the afternoon SE wind might be a handful traversing the Santa Barbara front range. The SE wind is compressing (venturi) rounding the Point Conception corner so there is more wind to the west with less wind to the east.

Ojai continues to look like the best option today with more protection from the ocean and the wind, plus it offers a downwind route along the front range. Garcia has the gate combo if anyone wants to put a crew together?
The altitude has been good in Ojai with pilots getting above 8K both Friday and Saturday. Altitudes crossing Casitas pass were in the mid-5s to low 6s both Friday and Saturday. Recommend going up and over Casitas Pass rather than around the front and through it to avoid potential a filling flow headwind venturi from the SW feeding Ojai. There was more east wind Saturday than Friday. Friday had more east wind to the east while Saturday and Sunday have more east wind to the west.

Santa Barbara may have an early window before the wind builds.

Pine looks good on paper for mid to late afternoon flights. The Nam Skew-Ts shows mid-day SE wind in the upper single digits (typically equates to gusting over 15 on launch?) backing down and clocking around to come light from the SW in the low single digits by 5 PM. The altitude looks ok but no stellar. Pine is arguably easier to get to than Chiefs because it is a paved road to launch.

Some models are calling for more SE wind early and less later (the winds aloft forecast and the NAM) while other models are calling for more wind this afternoon (Windy’s ECMWF). All models appear to be forecasting more wind up higher where a tailwind might be welcome and more manageable with better terrain clearance.

Monday's lapse rate continues to look good, but there is some moisture to the east.
A couple days of cooler temps before a short ridging warm-up mid-week
Potential 1st cold front of the season at the end of the week with possible rain.
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Saturday Morning Update:

Yesterday’s wannabe mild Santa Anna is forecasted to actually materialize today (Saturday) with more east wind than Friday. Santa Anna events can be NE or SE. This seems to be the SE variety so don’t recommend Pine mid-day

Pine does look promising for late day flights today (Saturday) as the wind backs down and the lapse rate is good up to about 12Kish. Windy is calling for N to NE wind up high, but I don’t see it on the NAM Skew-Ts, so I’m skeptical. I think it will be mostly east up high. On your glide out I recommend the highest intercept along White Ledge Ridge that you can muster. If you come up short you can land in Matilija Canyon. You might also consider leaving on glide from Rayes or Haddock so you don’t have to crab against the east wind.

Ojai likely offers the max open distance potential today.
Garcia has 2 full trucks going to Chiefs. You can likely get the gate combo from him?

Santa Barbara has a good lapse rate today. Expect SW in the afternoon down lower, but there is SE wind up above 3K.

There might be better potential going OTB than yesterday. As expected, it was a dead-end past Loma Alta on Friday, but today the SE flow pushes through for a continuation opportunity, but retrieval is iffy between Loma Alta and Happy Canyon.

FYI, a robust lapse rate, high pressure, and some wind don’t typically equate to smooth air. Recommend late day Pine for the newer pilots or perhaps for a 2nd flight if you choose to fly Ojai first. The launch conditions at Chiefs on Friday were lighter and easy early then stronger and more challenging by 12:30. I expect the launch conditions at Chiefs might be a little stronger today than yesterday.
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Friday Morning Update:

The Eagle Bus is going to Ojai, so I’ll focus on Ojai
8:45 East Beach, 9:20 Viola in Carp, and 10 at Nordhoff in Ojai

The forecast is evolving in alignment with yesterday’s assessment. Expect some marine air to pull in down lower, but up higher around 5K the wind is from the east, clocking around to come from the north up higher at 10K. The strategy is to try and stay as high as possible for a tailwind from the east, above the lower level more stable air from the SW. Go as far as you can westbound then perhaps turn and try to come back east with the lower level afternoon flow from the SW.

You might also be able to reach uphill toward the Topa Bluffs, and eventually toward Fillmore late in the day as the onshore flow eventually pulls upriver.

You might be able to go OTB for Sage, but expect a headwind from the west toward Fig.

The lapse rate is perhaps not as robust as Thursday, but it improves as the day heats up.

The east flow picks up a bit more on Saturday.
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Thursday morning outlook through the coming weekend…
A developing early season mild offshore Santa Anna event.

Pine looks good for local flights back to Ojai (or perhaps the beach for advanced pilots on higher performance gliders) from today (Thursday) through Sunday. There is too much east wind to the east for open distance flights, but there is some potential for a NE/NW convergence over the Watershed Divide. The morning flow is from the east so don’t think an early start has much value. The mid and late day lapse rate is robust up to about 11 or 12K. The airmass is dry so expect blue sky with perhaps some potential for a smattering of negligible high circus mid-day Saturday. I suspect it will be launchable from the south side mid-day, and possibly late in the day, but there is some potential for the Cuyama river to push from the NW late in the day. The 5650 north launch is typically mellow late in the day past sunset if the late day south launch looks iffy. We are on the waning side of the equinox, so if you prefer a late day bus plan on going earlier than you would in July and August. Perhaps 1 PM at Nordhoff to be ready to launch by 3:30. You can always wait a bit if it is more robust than you prefer. Personally, I’d recommend a 12:30 to 1 PM launch for P3 pilots and perhaps a 4 to 4:30 launch for the P2s.

Ojai looks good for flights back to SB through the period. The road is open so you can drive to launch, no need to hike, but you do need a free road permit from the Ojai District Office. The office is closed on weekends but you can call and ask them to leave a permit for you in the pickup box.
https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/lpnf/alerts-notices/?cid=stelprdb5309152
You might be able to step back to the Watershed Divide mid-afternoon, but don’t know that the conditions are ripe for stepping all the way back to Pine? There is no mid altitude capping inversion (but there is a capping inversion around 11.5K), so expect higher altitude over higher terrain. The lapse rate is better in Ojai than SB, but the lapse rate is even better behind the front range (the Watershed Divide and Pine).

Santa Barbara should work, but not as solid as Ojai and Pine, and there is some early east wind, perhaps giving way to some quenching flow from the west late in the day. If you are a speed junkie and like going upwind on full bar, then perhaps an out-and-return is in the cards. If you are newer on a slow glider, I’d recommend Pine or Ojai. SB might work good later in the afternoon than usual.

Fillmore might work, but from past experience, the wind on launch is typically more than forecasted in Santa Anna conditions requiring some para-waiting on launch for the wind to back down, then it might be too late to reach SB. Fillmore is more reliable in a SE prefrontal when the lapse rate is good down low. The lower level lapse rate in Fillmore does look good, better than Ojai, but early east wind on launch could be an issue. If you do opt to fly Fillmore for an extended course, Saturday might be the better day but that is subject to the whim of evolution. If we had a launch on the west side of the Sespe along San Cayetano Ridge then we could fly Fillmore in much more wind.

Don’t have a lot of confidence the coastal cliffs. If they do work, it will likely be weak from the west. There is some diurnal effect where the early drainage gives way do some upriver draw, so perhaps later in the afternoon? There is some afternoon west wind in the channel, but it might not pull into the cliffs away from an inland route.

Ventura Avenue might work in the afternoon.

Elings starts out light then draws in from the SW.

Down lower near the ocean, the morning wind is calm then building from the west. Up at the mid-altitudes it is more from the east, and higher up around 10K it builds from the NE late in the day.

I don’t have experience with Sage and Happy Canyon, so perhaps someone else could comment…
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