Last Weekend in March 2021

Summary for Saturday 3/27/2021 Posted at:
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4011#p11084
and
Summary for Sunday 3/28/2021 Posted at
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4011#p11085
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Saturday Morning Update:
The lapse rate has trended weaker quicker than previously projected, but still ok in Santa Barbara and robust in Ojai. There is weak katabatic downslope flow all the way to the beach at 7:30, which is good because it holds the marine air offshore. That should turn around soon and draw in. The 2 am forecast discussion was projecting mild Santa Anna flow down the Santa Clara this morning, but the current observations seem to indicate it is light and the offshore gradients are only minimal. The most recent winds aloft forecast is calling for light and variable up through 6K this morning so hopefully the balance of an ok lapse rate and light wind will permit us to get into Casitas Pass where the altitude should get better. As is typical in SB, I suspect the max altitude locally will be late morning to mid-day over La Cumbre Peak. We might need to struggle a bit to get past Castle Ridge and into Casita Pass.
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Friday Night look at the weekend
The weekend looks promising, but the course is likely limited eastbound near Fillmore. The Nam is calling for more wind the GFS model
Saturday (tomorrow) The lapse rate is robust by late morning. The 6K temperature is climbing from the mid-40s but the surface temperature is climbing faster. The mid-day temperature spread from the surface to 6K is in the upper 20s F around Santa Barbara and mid-30s F in Ojai, which is robust.
The altitude looks good, maybe 6K in SB and 7 to 8K later in the afternoon in Ojai.
Locally (west of Casitas Pass) the wind starts out from the NE early then comes from the west in the afternoon. Building as the day ages, more from the WSW down lower, then NW up above 5K and more from the north above that. The Santa Clara River is draining solid offshore in the morning then the onshore west pushes up-river in the afternoon to about Fillmore at the lower altitudes, but up higher it is still offshore from the NNE. Ojai looks more protected from the wind than the Santa Barbara side of Casitas Pass, so recommend spending the afternoon in Ojai. There is more north wind up higher. You might be able to do a short leg westbound, then tag the Topa Bluffs or Santa Paula Ridge (recommend staying low on an eastbound leg through Ojai) then if you can get high enough on the east end of the course you might be able to go over the lower level onshore draw toward the beach, but expect an onshore headwind down lower.
The wind on the ocean is much less than it has been for the past week or so, but perhaps enough for Bates to work but likely not good enough to bench back to La Conchita. The Avenue (Ventura) will likely be soarable late in the day. Looks like there could be more wind in the mountains than down at the beaches.
The clouds are gone, and the barometer is climbing. High pressure days with a strong lapse rate and some wind don’t tend to be smooth mid-day.
There is a mild morning inversion that needs to break. I suspect it should be soarable by 11 or earlier
Sunday warms at the surface and a little more so up higher, but the lapse rate still looks good but perhaps not as good as Saturday, The GFS and the Nam continue to disagree on the wind direction and strength with the Nam calling for more wind and more from the east and the GFS calling for less wind and more from the west. The beaches look like even less wind than Saturday.
Monday the lapse rate looks weaker but still positive. The offshore Santa Anna is replaced by flow from the west down lower and NW up higher. The altitude doesn’t look as good as Saturday and Sunday, and there might be more north up at the ridge line, but I suspect it will still work down lower.
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4011#p11084
and
Summary for Sunday 3/28/2021 Posted at
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4011#p11085
__________________________________
Saturday Morning Update:
The lapse rate has trended weaker quicker than previously projected, but still ok in Santa Barbara and robust in Ojai. There is weak katabatic downslope flow all the way to the beach at 7:30, which is good because it holds the marine air offshore. That should turn around soon and draw in. The 2 am forecast discussion was projecting mild Santa Anna flow down the Santa Clara this morning, but the current observations seem to indicate it is light and the offshore gradients are only minimal. The most recent winds aloft forecast is calling for light and variable up through 6K this morning so hopefully the balance of an ok lapse rate and light wind will permit us to get into Casitas Pass where the altitude should get better. As is typical in SB, I suspect the max altitude locally will be late morning to mid-day over La Cumbre Peak. We might need to struggle a bit to get past Castle Ridge and into Casita Pass.
_____________________________________________
Friday Night look at the weekend
The weekend looks promising, but the course is likely limited eastbound near Fillmore. The Nam is calling for more wind the GFS model
Saturday (tomorrow) The lapse rate is robust by late morning. The 6K temperature is climbing from the mid-40s but the surface temperature is climbing faster. The mid-day temperature spread from the surface to 6K is in the upper 20s F around Santa Barbara and mid-30s F in Ojai, which is robust.
The altitude looks good, maybe 6K in SB and 7 to 8K later in the afternoon in Ojai.
Locally (west of Casitas Pass) the wind starts out from the NE early then comes from the west in the afternoon. Building as the day ages, more from the WSW down lower, then NW up above 5K and more from the north above that. The Santa Clara River is draining solid offshore in the morning then the onshore west pushes up-river in the afternoon to about Fillmore at the lower altitudes, but up higher it is still offshore from the NNE. Ojai looks more protected from the wind than the Santa Barbara side of Casitas Pass, so recommend spending the afternoon in Ojai. There is more north wind up higher. You might be able to do a short leg westbound, then tag the Topa Bluffs or Santa Paula Ridge (recommend staying low on an eastbound leg through Ojai) then if you can get high enough on the east end of the course you might be able to go over the lower level onshore draw toward the beach, but expect an onshore headwind down lower.
The wind on the ocean is much less than it has been for the past week or so, but perhaps enough for Bates to work but likely not good enough to bench back to La Conchita. The Avenue (Ventura) will likely be soarable late in the day. Looks like there could be more wind in the mountains than down at the beaches.
The clouds are gone, and the barometer is climbing. High pressure days with a strong lapse rate and some wind don’t tend to be smooth mid-day.
There is a mild morning inversion that needs to break. I suspect it should be soarable by 11 or earlier
Sunday warms at the surface and a little more so up higher, but the lapse rate still looks good but perhaps not as good as Saturday, The GFS and the Nam continue to disagree on the wind direction and strength with the Nam calling for more wind and more from the east and the GFS calling for less wind and more from the west. The beaches look like even less wind than Saturday.
Monday the lapse rate looks weaker but still positive. The offshore Santa Anna is replaced by flow from the west down lower and NW up higher. The altitude doesn’t look as good as Saturday and Sunday, and there might be more north up at the ridge line, but I suspect it will still work down lower.