Start of February 2021

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Start of February 2021

Postby sd » Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:12 am

Thursday Morning Wee Hour Update:

I wasn’t going to evaluate the weather this morning, but I thought I should take a look because Victor’s assessment differed significantly from what I saw in Tuesday’s forecast for Thursday.

Today (Thursday) is looking less impressive than it did on Tuesday. The Nam Skew-T indicates the capping inversion is significantly lower than Tuesday’s forecast for Thursday, however, the winds aloft forecast would suggest the capping inversion may be a bit higher?

Maybe the better day of the next few, but not worth taking a personal day off work?

Somewhat Go to Know, but I suspect there will be an early window with weak lift and decent altitude but then deteriorating in SB in the afternoon. The Nam skew-t indicates Ojai should work good in the afternoon, but the max altitude will be limited to 45 to 5Kish? It looks unlikely that you can get to Ojai from SB so if you like to Hike Ojai should work better than SB.

The marine inversion is running about a thousand feet deep. The Nam Skew-t shows the capping inversion in SB to be up near 5K early (but top of lift is less) then the capping inversion dropping down into the low to mid-3s in the afternoon. The pre-dawn winds aloft forecast is calling for 7C (45F) at 6K over a broad range of time and location for SB. The surface temperature in downtown SB is forecasted to be 66, which is a 20ish Fahrenheit spread between the surface and 6K, which is weak but positive. The Nam and Winds aloft forecast don’t seem to agree. Also note that the Nam often shows a good lapse rate down low in SB when in reality it is often weak down low and working better up higher.

We are in transition from NW flow to NE flow. SB blocks a NE better than a NW, and with the strong capping inversion I suspect the wind in the mountains will be light. Wednesday’s high clouds should be mostly or completely gone today (Thursday). Down lower the Catalina Eddy is trying to spin up with equates to flow from the SE, but by the afternoon some quenching low level flow from the west is trying to pull in. If you believe Windy dot Com, the coastal cliffs might work but Windy often gets the sea breeze wrong.

06Z NAM Skew-Ts for SB (10 AM and 1 PM) and for Ojai (10 AM, 1 PM, and 4 PM)
nam_2021_02-04_06z_for_sb_04_18z.png
06Z Nam for 10 AM in SB

nam_2021_02-04_06z_for_sb_04_21z.png
06Z Nam for 1 PM in SB

nam_2021_02-04_06z_for_ojai_04_18z.png
06Z Nam for 10 AM Ojai

nam_2021_02-04_06z_for_ojai_04_21z.png
06Z Nam for 1 PM in Ojai

nam_2021_02-04_06z_for_ojai_04_24z.png
06Z Nam for 4 PM in Ojai


The trend looks progressively weaker on Friday through Saturday in both SB and Ojai. Seems like too much wind to go back to Pine Mountain.
___________________________________________
Tuesday Morning Perception

Yesterday (Monday) not sure about the lapse rate but there was stiff SE wind at ridgeline. Down lower it was soarable off the Skyport but he altitude gains appeared limited. Somewhere around 2K the wind switched from SE to SW.

Today (Tuesday) the lower level lapse rate looks robust with a little wind (mid to upper single digits) from the west. Today looks better than tomorrow.

Tomorrow (Wednesday) The lapse rate fades from today’s robust toward okish to good but there is significant post frontal wind from the NW.

Thursday looks good with sunny skies, a good to robust lapse rate and light wind under a pronounced capping inversion between 6K and 10K. Recommend scheduling a personal day off from your day job on Thursday.

Friday, the local lapse rate tanks toward inverted, but the inversion should offer some protection from the moderate upper level wind so it will likely be flyable in the mountains from the lower launches.

The Weekend is looking flyable with sunny skies and light offshore flow.
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