Last Work Week of January 2021

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Last Work Week of January 2021

Postby sd » Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:33 pm

Tuesday Morning Update:

Continue to have high confidence that it will be launchable from the Skyport but as noted previously confidence is low on the timing. We are weighing the mix of strong NW wind early, building thermal block, a lowering capping inversion, plus the wind is forecasted to progressively back down, clock around counter-clockwise from the north and then build from the SSW by later tonight.

The early lapse rate on this morning’s NAM Skew-Ts seems to be a bit stronger than last night’s model run, so perhaps we might be able to get off on the early side of the window, but by early I’m thinking late morning. There is more protection from the afternoon coastal wind in Ojai, then more wind from the SW in the Santa Clara river, but manageable.

Not a casual flying day. Likely better to be a tad early and have to wait than be late if you are looking to maximize the day, but I think the window has some elbow room to get off and over Casitas Pass before the west builds. I’d recommend meeting around 10ish at East Beach for a late morning launch from the Skyport.
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Monday Night Review

Monday (today) was not flyable for PGs both in the mountains or the coast due to excessive wind. Fast HGs might have been able to fly Bates.

Tuesday (tomorrow) is a transition day with a brief ridge of higher pressure. The day starts out with a lot of north wind in the mountains, but the wind backs off and begins to clock around to come from the west and continue to clock to eventually come from the south by Tuesday (tomorrow) night. There is also a capping inversion that drops down in the afternoon that should help shield the lower altitudes. The inversion starts high (above 10K) so it may not help much early, but the bottom of the inversion drops down toward 6K in the afternoon which is closer to our soaring altitudes.

The airmass is quite cold with freezing level around 3K early then rising through the day. The surface temperature highs are forecasted to be in the low 60s near the coast and 5 degrees cooler in Ojai. The early lapse rate is ok to good, but likely not enough to block the ridgeline wind early. As the day heats the lapse rate transitions from ok to good to robust before eventually fading a bit late in the day.

The very low launches like the Rock may be launchable early, but the Skyport maybe not draw in until late morning or early afternoon. The ridgeline will likely be launchable later as the flow clocks around to eventually come from the south by Tuesday night.

Mid-day there will likely be more wind at the beaches than in the mountains. Bates may offer a late morning window for flights to Ventura but has the potential to get marginally strong for PGs in the afternoon. Ojai and Fillmore should have less wind than the coast.

The Skew-T forecast soundings are indicating potential for high clouds later in the afternoon, but windy shows them moving in from the west and may not be a problem if you are on the east end of the course later in the day.

The mountains look like they may have potential to launch from the Skyport and run east but the window my be short if you have to wait until the afternoon for the wind to back down. Confidence is high that the mountains will eventually be launchable tomorrow (Tuesday) and offer strong lift, but confidence is low on the timing.

Wednesday and Thursday the south wind is strong and the orographic lift along the front range will result is significant rain and snow. Wednesday and Thursday are likely not flyable

Friday is a bit far out but looks like it will likely be flyable.
Last edited by sd on Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Last Work Week of January 2021

Postby LNW » Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:16 pm

Tuesdays lapse is definitely looking nice. With a 6 degree spread up to a slight capping inversion around 6500. The main differences in Tuesday vs last Sunday are the much colder temps, extra moisture, lower pressure and stronger lapse rate. Tuesday seems like a good day to bring your a game and a compass. Expect clouds more than forecasted on basic models and stronger wind. A lapse rate like that is normally associated with strong gusts. Friendly reminder to keep a close eye on the ocean and run downwind when in doubt.

As far as blocking goes i have no real guess as to when it will happen but since we are making guesses about the forecast, I expect it will be around or after 12 as the ground is wet it will slow heating and ocean temps are currently 57f so they won't help the push much until the afternoon.

I could very easily be off on all this depending on what happens with the current overhead trough significantly stirring the air.

I'll try to post a morning review as well.
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Re: Last Work Week of January 2021

Postby LNW » Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:10 am

At first light, there is surprisingly lightish (gusting 16) north wind at ridge height. 12f difference between the bottom of the hill and la Cumbre.

I expect a small increase soon in winds before a drop off for thermal blocking. At this point I'm thinking to head up the hill at 10.
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