2021 New Year Weekend

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2021 New Year Weekend

Postby sd » Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:45 am

Friday Morning Perception

Wow, what a difference a day can make. Yesterday (Thursday) was nuking and today we are in a jet stream trough with another (lower amplitude) peak due tomorrow (Saturday).

Today (Friday) looks like the best day through Monday
The ridge line wind started backing down from the mid-40s around 9 PM last night and quickly dropped into the mid-single digits by midnight before turning to come light from the west. There is some katabatic drainage, so our local downslope flow at dawn is more than the ridge line wind. There is also dry Santa Anna offshore flow off to the east, more persistent toward Thousand Oaks with the offshore flow down the Santa Clara River relaxing late in the day. The Windy.com forecast is for light and variable while the NAM skew-t and the aviation Winds Aloft Forecast are calling for local light flow from the west building into the upper single digits in the afternoon.

We have a nice capping inversion between 6 and 10K that should effectively shield us from only moderate upper level winds. The lapse rate below the inversion is robust. The capping inversion lowers some late in the day so max altitudes might be better earlier. Upper 5s in Santa Barbara and near 7K in Ojai. Potential for a thin high-clouds late in the day.

Should be able to launch early and fly late. No need to launch high, but if you do you might consider West La Cumbre or Western Skies.

Saturday (tomorrow) there is a weak dry cold front passing through. Somewhat inverted down low and a better lapse rate above 3500, but also some wind from the NW up higher. North Side Alternator might be a good option if your kiting skills are good enough to thread the overgrown vegetation. Saturday will likely have high clouds.

Sunday is looking better. Not as good as today, but better than Saturday. Similar to Friday but with a lower capping inversion, so lower max altitude. Light wind down low and a good lapse rate, but only into the mid to upper 3s. High clouds could be an issue.

Monday looks problematic. Some building west wind, high clouds, and possible rain.
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