Christmas Weekend 2020

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Christmas Weekend 2020

Postby sd » Fri Dec 25, 2020 7:45 am

Friday Morning Perception

Derek’s forecast appears to be accurate, but I’ll try to add some additional insight.

Today, Friday, Christmas, is presenting options for both the mountains and the coastal cliffs.
The lapse rate looks ok, perhaps a little better up high based on the NAM, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in the NAM’s correlation to our coastal micro stratification.

Less wind in the mountains this afternoon than on the coast. With the direction clocking around to come from the west as the day warms West La Cumber might be a better launch option than EJ?

The wind starts out L&V with some offshore katabatic drainage but pulls in from the SW as the day warms, then builds stronger on the coast. Bates looks promising this afternoon, perhaps good enough to get up and jump downwind across the freeway to La Conchita?

The intermittent high clouds could be a problem this afternoon, but we might get lucky and have a good window before they dampen the heating.

Saturday (tomorrow). The lower level lapse looks good. There is some wind increasing with altitude, approaching 100 knots up in the jet stream. We have very weak capping inversion that might hold the wind off for a while at the lower altitudes so there could be a window mid to late morning for an up and out to Padaro or Bates?

The costal wind on Saturday looks more robust than today for a short duration, starting out light then building mid-day before fading later in the afternoon. Flights to Ventura from Bates look possible mid-day but it might get too strong for a while so the window could be narrow.

High clouds are a potential wild card again on Saturday, but we might get lucky and have enough sun

Sunday, the high clouds seem to be more of a problem but there are some possible holes. The lapse rate looks ok despite the high clouds due to a colder airmass which will require less heating to make it work. Wind is from the SW, increasing with altitude, less than Saturday with no capping inversion. The coastal wind sweeps through from the west so Bates will likely offer another opportunity.

Monday is getting far out so the timing is iffy, but it appears to be cloudy, wet, and windy.
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