Mid December 2020

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Mid December 2020

Postby sd » Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:04 am

Friday Morning Update

The forecast continues to align with yesterday’s model trajectory.

Today (Friday) looks like perhaps the better day of the next few, but course limited to the east. The lapse rate is robust, and we expect the local wind to back off. Launch time will likely be determined by when the morning inversion burns off rather than wind OTB.

Bates looks like it might work during prime time today, but not strong like yesterday.

Tomorrow (Saturday) the lapse rate does flatten but hopefully the wind will be light enough that the weaker thermal can organize.

Sunday, the lapse rate perks back up, but there could be an issue with more east wind at altitude.

Monday looks interesting with a good lapse rate, but it is too far out to speculate on the details.

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Thursday Morning Perception

Today (Thursday), The mountains are forecasted to be a bit windy for PGs, but Bates looks like it might offer a window both today and tomorrow (Friday), with today being stronger and perhaps a shorter window with the potential to get more robust than preferable this afternoon.

Tomorrow (Friday) the mountains look promising with a decent lapse rate and a capping inversion between 5-8K that should reduce vertical mixing across the inversion and help shield the lower altitudes from the moderately stronger level wind in the inversion. There is some east wind on the east end of the course that will likely halt progress eastbound.

This Weekend (Saturday and Sunday), the lapse rate flattens but the reduced vertical mixing should hopefully result in light wind and flyable conditions in the mountains.
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