Early December Weekend 2020

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Early December Weekend 2020

Postby sd » Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:10 am

Sunday Morning Update

Likely the last day of a long stretch of flyable weather before a wind event that begins later this afternoon and continues through Tuesday

Today (Sunday) The day starts our nice but deteriorates later in the day due to increasing high clouds and increasing wind from the NW. The lapse rate looks similar to yesterday down low, but maybe a tad better up high. The variation is minimal, so… Go to Know?

Yesterday’s east wind is giving way to W to NW flow, but we start out mild, so the day has some early potential. The high clouds start to drift over about mid-day, so their timing will be a bit of a wild card. The combination of reduced heating in the afternoon and increasing flow from the west will likely get the better of the weak thermals this afternoon.

Yesterday, I launched about 10:20, but had to hang on for a half hour for it to warm up. It then worked okish for about an hour and a half before getting weak early in the afternoon. Today, I think the timing might shift a bit earlier because yesterday we had high clouds early and today is the inverse with early heating and high clouds later?

Monday (tomorrow) is likely not flyable in our local mountains form most PG pilots due to stiff wind form the east. Elings looks ok up through maybe 2 PM?

Tuesday is more of the same (too windy?), but lighter, so look for alternate activities (Elings will likely be flyable).

Wednesday looks promising. The lapse rate fades some but still looks robust and the wind decreases and clocks around to come from the west
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Saturday Morning Perception

The Santa Anna east wind has faded and continues to fade through the weekend, giving way to some flow from the west on Sunday before a dry front brings instability and perhaps too much wind on Monday and Tuesday. There will be intermittent periods of high clouds.

Today (Saturday). The good news is the wind is mostly light and variable on our local Santa Barbara front range. The lapse rate is a bit weak but not inverted. The lapse rate looks a little better up high, so EJ might be preferable over the Skyport this morning

There are some mid-level (around 20K) clouds to contend with this morning, and then some higher clouds late in the day, but it looks like the timing will be favorable such that we will have a window between the bands of clouds during our optimal mid-day soaring window.

As is typical, Ojai looks more robust than SB, if you can get there with the stretch along Castle Ridge being low and close to the ocean. Ojai looks good late in the day with favorable timing relative to the cloud bands. There is a little of east wind remaining, but not much so if you can get over Casitas Pass you should be able to reach the bus stop in Fillmore.

Windy (dot com) is suggesting there might be enough low-level flow from the west later today for Bates to be marginally soarable, but the marine forecast isn’t calling for much wind in the channel. High tide is mid-day, but you can fly Bates during a high tide when the flow is from the west.

Sunday (tomorrow), the east flow has given way to light flow from the west. Similar or perhaps a slightly better lapse rate, but the west flow could quench the lower altitudes.

Monday and Tuesday look robust with a strong lapse rate but likely too much wind for PGs in the mountains.
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