Post ForePlay Week 2020

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Post ForePlay Week 2020

Postby sd » Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:19 am

Monday Morning Perception

We might have a day remaining in the stretch of good soaring weather that started last Thursday with a robust lapse rate and some wind, both of which faded through the weekend with a balance that offered sweet flying along the south coast.

Today (Monday), the 6K temp is about the same as yesterday, but the surface is forecasted to be warmer. The broad upper flow has clocked around to come more from the north (as opposed to more of a north east over the prior few days). Down at our soaring altitudes, we might see a little more west flow, which is good from tailwind perspective going east, but could pull in quenching flow and break up the thermals if they are too week. It’s a delicate balance between the strength of the west flow forecasted to be in the mid-single digits (with stronger local draw) and the strength of the lapse rate.

I suspect the high terrain away from the ocean should work, perhaps a bit more robust than the past couple of days, but the low zone along Castle Ridge might be problematic. Once again, if you can get past Castle Ridge, Ojai looks much better than SB today.

Santa Barbara may not work late due to the building wind late in the day. Sundowner winds are forecasted for area west of Goleta with some effect into the area behind Santa Barbara.

Ojai is more protected from the ocean and wind. It should work late, but the course looks limited toward Fillmore. Fillmore has a good lapse rate, but the offshore katabatic drainage is persistent, not so strong that you can’t venture out into the river, but there will likely be east wind in Fillmore. The stronger offshore flow is a little more to the south east.

The most conservative option today with the highest probability of success is to launch from the Nuthouse mid-day to early afternoon and plan on staying in the local fishbowl. The more ambitious and logistically easier option would be to launch in SB and try to stay ahead of the west wind. If you can claw past Castle Ridge…

The Nam skew-t seems to indicate the morning lapse rate is better up high, but the 15 hundred fool layer is forecasted to warm (warmer than the past few days). The wild card is how much quenching onshore flow we get that will cool off the lower layer.

Tuesday (Tomorrow) the lapse rate looks inverted with more wind above, so likely flyable but not as good as it has been.

Wednesday looks better than Tuesday with locally light flow from the west and a weak lapse rate. Flyable in the mountains but not as good as this past weekend?

Thursday looks inverted. Light wind down low and more win up above. Locally flyable (at least from the lower launches), but not so good soaring…

Saturday might be better? / I probably won’t update until with weekend approaches.
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