Weekdays Entering 2nd half of November 2020

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Weekdays Entering 2nd half of November 2020

Postby sd » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:05 am

Thursday Mid-Morning Update

The front slowed and faded, shifting the timing back. Don’t think we got any measurable rain on the south coast? This afternoon looks ok locally, high clouds tomorrow, and a more robust weekend.

Today (Thursday) starts out scuddy on the SB front range with some fading wind from the NE at ridgeline. There is a weak but positive lapse rate down in the marine air, which is 3 to 4K deep, with a weak capping inversion above, so the lower launches will likely work better, but not early. The lapse rate gets a little better in the afternoon. The lapse rate isn’t much better in Ojai, so I don’t think it’s worth the hike to the Nuthouse. Pine is likely too windy.

Friday (tomorrow) has less wind and a similar lapse rate, but mid to high clouds will dampen the heating. Should be a mellow day for P2 Pilots in the local mountains to get in some reps. Don’t recommend investing travel time on Friday because the high clouds are widespread.

Saturday: The start of a school-teacher’s weekend? The lapse rate improves through the weekend as we transition to a mild Santa Anna. Clear skies and not much local wind on the Santa Barbara front range. The SB lapse rate is positive, but starts out a little on the weak side. Flow is from the west, so West La Cumbre is a good launch option. The lapse rate and altitudes are significantly better in Ojai, so the Nuthouse is an option if you are ok with the hike. You could also fly Pine, but with flow from the NW up higher you would likely need to use the north launch and the max altitude is only so-so, so recommend either SB or Ojai.

Sunday: The lapse rate continues to improve as the Santa Anna strengthens. The wind in SB starts our light from the west and builds into the upper single digits as the lapse rate trends from good to robust. The Skyport should be adequate, or West La Cumbre if you prefer a shallower launch. Ojai looks better with a robust lapse rate and light flow from the east giving way to even lighter flow from the west in the afternoon. Sunday options include (but are not limited to). Flights to Fillmore from SB, or Ojai to SB and back to Fillmore, or going OTB (upwind) along the Watershed Divide for an altitude boost.
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Tuesday Mid-Morning Update

Today (Tuesday) starts out with a fairly high tide. It will be going out soon with low tide a little after sunset. Bates may work on the east end, but the high tide is a problem. It looks more robust early and is forecast to fade some mid-day (in Carpinteria). More Mesa will likely offer more gusto but expect it to be cross from the east.

Don’t recommend the local SB mountains for PGs today due to increasing SE wind with altitude, and more wind toward the west. Ojai is more sheltered. A few pilots are headed to the Nuthouse (Logan, Cedar, and Josh). The day has its limitations, but if you are hungry to fly the mountains and willing to hike, the Nuthouse may be the only option for PGs. HGs may be able fly SB. There is substantially less wind in Ojai and the direction is more south with less east (down lower) compared to SB. The wind does fade a bit later in the day (but not much), so you can likely launch from the Nuthouse later and still do ok. The lapse rate is only so-so, but there is plenty of ridge lift to work with.

Wednesday (tomorrow) looks wet early, but better later in the afternoon.

Thursday and Friday look good. Not stellar, but clear skies, light wind, and good enough to connect some dots.
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