Mid November Weekend 2020

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Mid November Weekend 2020

Postby sd » Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:28 am

Sunday Mid-Morning Update

Today, Sunday, looks like it might be the best opportunity of the extended weekend? The lapse rate looks better tomorrow, but the ESE wind on Monday will likely be a handful for most PG pilots (including old guys like me).

The Santa Anna event is a little ahead of schedule. There is some north wind up at 6K (10 knots this morning building into the low teens this afternoon), but the lapse rate is only OKish so the vertical mixing will hopefully be limited. The channel is light this morning and isn’t forecasted to stir much today, protected from the moderate north wind in the shadow of our south facing range?

The 6K temp is warm (60+F), so no need to layer up. Downtown is forecasted to reach into the high 70s, so there is a positive lapse rate but by no means robust. We don’t have a capping inversion, Windy.com is calling for light flow from the west down low and stronger flow from the NW at ridgeline clocking around to come from the NE up higher, and Windy thinks the north flow will continue out past the Channel Islands

I think it will be flyable in our local mountains. Might want to use the lower launches, but I also think there is a reasonable possibility you can get off from the ridgeline mid-day? Currently (mid-morning) the local stations are reporting light wind even up at ridgeline.

Monday (tomorrow) the Santa Anna peaks early. The lapse rate is more robust, but there is also significant wind from the SE in the mid-teens to contend with. If you have your stirrups tuned, you might be able to go for a ride and connect OTB toward Sage and beyond?

Tuesday cools substantially and goes pre-frontal with wind from the SE down low and increasing wind from the SW up higher. High clouds likely…

Wednesday’s forecast predicts low clouds and decent instability. There is a of wind up high, but a nice capping inversion just above 6K that should shield the lower altitudes. Low cloudbase (2500) and possible rain could be a problem. Lower level wind is from the west. You might be able to bop down to Castle Ridge and then reach out for the Rincon Coast?
________________________________________
Friday Morning Perception
Wish we had better news for the schoolteachers, but I’m only the messenger.

At 7:53 am Chris Lorimer posted (to the SBSA Telegram Chat)
Looks like gusty NW wind at peak level around noon. Maybe Skyport would be alright early but being in the air when the NW picks up might not be fun.
I would go to the Training hill if I were flying today.

I mostly concur with Chris’s assessment but will elaborate
We had a weak trough move through last night leaving anemic post frontal conditions in its wake. The lapse rate does improve a bit compared to the past couple of day, but there is also building NW west wind and no capping inversions to protect the lower altitudes, so the vertical mixing associated with moderate instability should pull the upper level wind down into our soaring altitudes.

Today (Friday) there might be an earlyish window from the lower launches (Skyport or Bypass) during the initial phase of “vertical mixing” before the NW wind builds above PG flying parameters. It’s currently light OTB at ridgeline and calm mid-channel. It might even be possible to get off from the ridgeline at West La Cumbre, but I’d recommend the lower launches. Likely not a good day for P2 pilots?

The mid-channel and inner waters are currently calm, but it is gusting to 25 around Point Conception (which is common). The Channel wind is forecasted to increase from the west, but not sure it will make it all the way to Bates? Windy.com isn’t showing the wind pushing into the Rincon coast at sea level this afternoon. The T-Hill, Wilcox, and More Mesa may have windows today, but will likely see stiffer wind from the west this afternoon.

Saturday (tomorrow) is problematic for PGs in the mountains with wind from the NE at ridgeline early and a weak lapse rate, then swinging around to come from the NW at ridgeline in the afternoon. The Brotherhood velocities look a bit marginal for PGs, but it looks good HGs. The lower altitudes seem to be in a “wind shadow”, somewhat shielded from the north wind by the mountains. Elings might be ok on Saturday, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in Bates.

Sunday starts to transition to a Santa Anna. The local lapse rate isn’t very robust, but the north wind backs off enough that the lower launches will likely be launchable. Still a lot of wind around Point Conception, but our mid-channel looks light so Elings should be good for the students. Bates doesn’t look promising on Sunday.

Monday is a bit far out, but it looks like the Santa Anna is established by then. We are mostly protected from the Santa Anna katabatic drainage and our local flow is from the SE. Monday might offer some OTB potential toward Sage and beyond, but the lapse rate is only average.
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