Early October Post Frontal 11/9-10/2020

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Early October Post Frontal 11/9-10/2020

Postby sd » Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:43 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Looks like another good day to fly in SB. Lapse rate is a bit weaker compared to Monday, but still plenty good. The lapse rate fades later in the day. Yesterday’s lapse rate was perhaps stronger than preferable? A little warmer today at all altitudes.

The lift today does not go as high compared to Monday, maybe 4500 to 5Kish, and a thousand higher in Ojai.

Can likely launch earlier today, but still need the morning inversion to break. Can also likely get off at EJ if you like that launch better, but the Skyport should work good also.

There is less local wind at ridgeline this morning. Likely more wind from the east on the east end of the course compered to yesterday. In Fillmore expect NE at altitude upriver flow sliding underneath
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Monday Morning Perception

Most of the seasoned pilots know that today’s post frontal conditions look robust, but for the newer pilots I’ll drone on a bit.

Today, Monday, has better altitude and distance potential than tomorrow (Tuesday). Tuesday is forecasted to have less wind down at our soaring altitudes, but that is partly because the lift doesn’t go as high as today. Tuesday actually has more wind just above our soaring altitudes, but less vertical mixing. Today (Monday) we have a pronounced capping inversion (but up high) that should help shield us form the upper level wind once the day turns on, but there is some wind to contend with down lower.

The flow at the top of our soaring altitudes is from NNE early shitting to come more from the NNW later in the day on the west end of the course with NNE persisting on the east end. Down lower expect building WSW on the west end and fading ESE on the east end.

We won’t be able to get off early. We need the stiff north ridgeline wind at dawn to block. By mid-day through mid-afternoon the local altitudes look good, perhaps 6K. The altitude gets better through Ojai, 7 to 8K and then maybe a tad lower at Santa Paula Peak and Fillmore (7K plus?).

Light flow from the east persist in Fillmore, so it might be a good day to bridge across the river from the “F” toward Semi Valley

We will be clock limited today due to a late start, but the day should work late.

Launch time will be dependent on when it blocks. For local flights it might be better to launch later, but if you want to fly to Simi Valley you will need to get off earlier. Hopefully we can get off from the Skyport by 11 or perhaps a tad earlier, but we might need to wait for it.

And yes, layer up. Freezing level is around 6K, so if you to 8 it will be much colder

Tomorrow looks like good flying also, but more limited than today. The conditions fade through the week.
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