Mid-Week Early Nov 2020

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Mid-Week Early Nov 2020

Postby sd » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:52 pm

Tuesday Morning Update

Not much change. Still looks good for Pine today and tomorrow. Santa Barbara gets better on Thursday. The Nuthouse back to SB also looks good for Thursday.

Today (Tuesday). A crew is headed to Pine. A little less wind than yesterday’s forecast for today, so confidence is higher that it will be blowing up both sides of the hill and converging over launch with pilots getting to 12Kish. There are some high clouds that will limit the heating a bit, but I expect enough sun will get through to make the day work.

The lighter wind in today’s forecast is good for Novice pilots getting high at launch, but not as much tailwind on glide toward the beach, so Carpinteria looks iffy on a direct line, however, the Watershed Divide is looking better compared to yesterday’s forecast for today, so if you can get a re-boost over the Divide it might get you back to Santa Barbara above the lower level onshore flow from the west.

If you choose to fly SB, West La Cumbre looks like the best launch option today.
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Monday Afternoon Perception

Pine and Ojai look good for the next few days. Santa Barbara looks better on Wednesday than in does on Tuesday.

Tuesday (Tomorrow) Pine looks like it should work good for getting back to the front range, but the front range itself looks a little weak. Tuesday looks like the best altitude with thermal tops perhaps near 12K at Pine, but lower along the Watershed Divide. Flow is light from the NE at the middle altitudes (6 to 12K), so it will be downwind back toward White Ledge. Down lower the flow is from the west, so getting back to SB will likely be problematic, but if you can clear White Ledge on glide you might be able to reach Carpinteria? Expect some high clouds, but hopefully not enough to limit the heating too much?

SB looks inverted below 3K on Tuesday, but you might be able to hang on from the higher launches. West La Cumber (our highest P2 PG launch) might be a good option by mid-day through early afternoon. Some pilots do launch from La Cumbre Peak, which is about 30 feet higher, but the launch is challenging and has only been flown by a few PG pilots with advanced launch skills (not me).

Wednesday, the lapse looks better on both the front range and the Pine range, but the lift doesn’t go as high at Pine compared with Tuesday, perhaps up to around 10K. The NE persist down a bit lower. The Watershed Divide convergence will likely be dependable, but with max altitude only about 10K it is a bit of a reach. 10K is likely good enough to clear the lower points of the front range on glide from Pine. Since the front range looks like it should be working, you should have some options to continue toward SB, but expect to run into increasing headwind down lower and to the west.

Less potential for high clouds on Wednesday, then maybe back again on Thursday?

Thursday also looks promising for Pine, Ojai, and SB, but it’s too far out for much confidence in details.

I’ll probably try to go to Pine tomorrow if I can line up logistics. Targeting an 11 AM launch, but we can still likely get up and out launching as late as 1 PM. The day should work well past 2PM, but with short days this time of year you won't have many options launching late.
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