Sunday 10/25/2020 Perception

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Sunday 10/25/2020 Perception

Postby sd » Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:34 am

Sunday Morning Pre-Dawn Perception

Yesterday, (Saturday) looked like it might have been good in the local SB mountains for mellow local flights at the lower altitudes? Didn’t see any pilot reports. Not much sun and reduced heating, but the mid-day clouds appeared to be clumping nicely. The reporting stations indicate the base wind was from the SW in the mid-single digits. If you don’t like bumpy high-pressure air, then you might like flying on low pressure cloudy days with softer heating and smoother air.

Today (Sunday), the lower level lapse rate looks good, up to about 3K. The day dries out more than yesterday, but there is also potential for a little more wind from the WSW later in the day (compared to yesterday). The wind could be a good thing for the coastal cliffs like Wilcox and Bates… Expect more wind toward the west end of the course. Windy.com seems to be calling for more local wind than the Winds Aloft forecast or the NAM skew-t forecast soundings.

There is significantly more wind up higher (locally from the NW), but there is also a sharp inversion from about 4 to 7K that should help shield the lower altitudes.

Too early to see out my window, but based on the skew-t forecast it looks like cloudbase starts out low but rises to around the Skyport by mid-day, then the mid to upper 3s by mid-afternoon, but by mid-afternoon the west wind in the mountains is approaching double digits (increasing with altitude). The clouds break by the end of the day.

My recommendation would be to launch late morning to early afternoon from the Skyport, or the Bypass if cloudbase is too low for the Skyport early, then look at the coastal cliffs later in the day…

And of course, Elings will likely offer a window.
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