Last Weekend of May 2020

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Last Weekend of May 2020

Postby sd » Sat May 30, 2020 6:36 am

It’s not summer yet?

Saturday Morning Perception
Another interesting weekend with various contradictions in the tea leaves?
Sort of a weak low-pressure system disrupting our typical May Gray and June Gloom. When the thick low overcast broke late Friday, the visibility looked clear rather than the seasonal haze, so I was inspired to look out my window at dawn. Despite the clear skies, the forecast is calling for mostly cloudy early yielding to partly cloudy later in the day??

The NAM Skew-t forecast sounding indicate a good local lapse rate by mid to late morning down below 4Kish, then a capping inversion above. The day starts out cool aloft (8C at 6K) but warms quickly to 12C this afternoon and 14C by Sunday morning. 6K is in today’s inverted temp profile, so our lapse rate below 4K is better than the winds aloft forecast indicate.

So… Today (Saturday) looks promising locally, but don’t expect to get very high. Not sure if the capping inversion will let us take the high route over Casitas Pass, but SB to Carp looks pretty doable.

The wind forecast for today is varied. We seem to have some pre-frontal or eddy flow from the SE early, but that will likely give way to SW as the day kicks off? The wind up higher (above the capping inversion) is stronger from the South.

On Sunday, the local lapse rate fades as the bottom of the inversion lowers, so its simply and inversion rather than a capping inversion, but it looks good up higher at Pine. You might be able to get to Pine from Ojai, but SB looks iffy? With south wind up higher, don’t expect Pine to be record setting day, maybe fly north?

Monday looks sort of post frontal with a low inversion and a good lapse rate above. Might be able to launch high locally and stay above the low marine air? If you can get to Ojai on Monday the altitudes look impressive which presents options.

One significant problem through the period is the forecast is calling for mostly cloudy. Monday appears to have some high clouds.

If you can get over Casitas Pass today, Ojai looks average and Fillmore appears to quench once the sea breeze pulls upriver. Ojai looks much better on Monday.
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