Easter Weekend 2020

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Easter Weekend 2020

Postby sd » Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:45 am

Saturday Morning Perception

Saturday looks better than Sunday for the mountains. Not a stellar day with a weak but positive lapse rate, but maybe good enough to squeak over Casitas Pass? If you can get to Ojai you should be able to transition over to Santa Paula Ridge, but Fillmore doesn’t’ look like it’s worth the logistic cost of pushing past the bus stop.

There is some north wind this morning that needs to block, so don’t expect to launch before 11ish, and noon looks more likely? Mid-day looks best. There is a kink in the temp profile at 3K early but the lapse rate improves through the day, however, the west wind also builds toward double digits later in the day, so not sure the thermals will be massive enough to hold together against the mild west wind (NW up higher)?

The Marine Forecast is calling for west wind in the channel, but Windy.com seems to indicate it is mostly in the western portion so it may not pull in at Bates?

Sunday looks inverted with a marine layer up to about 3K then sharply increasing temperature above launch, so if you go to the mountains plan to go low. Ellings might be a better call on Sunday?

The inversion continues Monday…
then on Tuesday some dry offshore Santa Anna flow moves overhead. Fillmore will be too windy, but the Nuthouse back to the coast looks doable.
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