Weather outlook for the last weekend in March 2020

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Saturday Morning Pre-Dawn Perception
There are conflicting forecast, so I’ll throw in a dose of looking outside and raising a wet finger.

The good news is the wicked winds we’ve had the past couple of days should spare the south coast, however some forecasts are still calling for it to get windy this afternoon. There is a lot of wind around Pt Conception, but it doesn’t seem to be rounding the corner into the Channel. Mid channel is actually blowing from the east before dawn, and most other sites are draining light offshore with typical compression venturi flow (low teens) from the north along our ridgeline. I suspect the drainage should turn onshore once we get a little heating.

The marine forecast is calling for some coastal breeze this afternoon, but much less than the past couple of days. Windy.com is forecasting light winds along our coastal cliffs, but the zone forecast thinks the wind will crank up later this afternoon? The predawn winds aloft forecast for this afternoon is light and variable up through 6K, and the NAM thinks that light morning drainage flow will clock around to come light (mid single digits) from the west mid-day and this afternoon.

My guess (only a guess) is that Bates will work mid-day through the afternoon today?

The lapse rate looks good on paper. Not as ballistic as the past few day, but the 6K temp is only a couple degrees C. Problem is the high clouds moderating the heating, which might be a good thing because it could soften the edges?

High clouds are expected to increase as another weak front approaches for passage on Sunday.

Sunday looks elevated with more wind, stronger lapse rate, more cloud development. Possibly a better day if you’ve got a good set of spurs for the ride, but Saturday will likely offer less anxiety. Some rain possible on Sunday in the mountains, but not likely along the coast or further east. I suspect Sunday will have a window for a Bates to Ventura run?

On Monday, the lapse rate fades but it looks flyable. By Tuesday, we start seeing some dry NE influence with an inversion along the coast.