Tricky call today. There is SE wind increasing with altitude and increasing in velocity as you move further west toward Santa Barbara and Point Conception as the flow tries to compress around the corner. The wind is light in Fillmore and Santa Barbara, but possibly problematic approaching double digits at ridgeline in Santa Barbara on the skew-t graphs, and likely higher due to ridgeline venturi compression? Debbie is reporting 20 from the east just before dawn.
The lapse rate is ok but not stellar. If it wasn’t for the cloud development it would be easy to say let’s go to Fillmore (or the Nuthouse if you like the hike), but we are going to need a little heating to make it work. The morning lapse rate in Fillmore is good, but that might also lead to overdevelopment. The southeast flow in Fillmore is much less than Santa Barbara, so we can’t count on surfing up San Cayetano in the ridge lift, we are going to need some thermal lift… The low-level afternoon flow in Fillmore is actually forecasted to be light from the SW, so it might be a better option for P2 pilots compared to Santa Barbara which will might have wind issues?
Today is clearly the better day for the mountains, but the coast might work on Sunday before the rain?? The coast might work this afternoon, but it would be on the weak side if it does…