Saturday 3/21/2020 Perception

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Saturday 3/21/2020 Perception

Postby sd » Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:59 am

Tricky call today. There is SE wind increasing with altitude and increasing in velocity as you move further west toward Santa Barbara and Point Conception as the flow tries to compress around the corner. The wind is light in Fillmore and Santa Barbara, but possibly problematic approaching double digits at ridgeline in Santa Barbara on the skew-t graphs, and likely higher due to ridgeline venturi compression? Debbie is reporting 20 from the east just before dawn.

The lapse rate is ok but not stellar. If it wasn’t for the cloud development it would be easy to say let’s go to Fillmore (or the Nuthouse if you like the hike), but we are going to need a little heating to make it work. The morning lapse rate in Fillmore is good, but that might also lead to overdevelopment. The southeast flow in Fillmore is much less than Santa Barbara, so we can’t count on surfing up San Cayetano in the ridge lift, we are going to need some thermal lift… The low-level afternoon flow in Fillmore is actually forecasted to be light from the SW, so it might be a better option for P2 pilots compared to Santa Barbara which will might have wind issues?

Today is clearly the better day for the mountains, but the coast might work on Sunday before the rain?? The coast might work this afternoon, but it would be on the weak side if it does…
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Re: Saturday 3/21/2020 Options

Postby sd » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:27 am

The day looks like it has some potential, but there are time investment risk.

Mitch is in town for a final day this season, so if you want fly with Mitch he is looking at Sage with the intent of flying downwind toward Figueroa and beyond, which looks aligned with the cards on the table.

Logan is thinking of launching local and then attempting to go OTB toward Sage, which might work and avoid the hike for people like me who have hiking limitations. Logan has work this morning so he likely can’t get out of town until 11-ish.

For me, I was thinking Fillmore might be my best personal option. I would like to hike and fly with Mitch, but it is beyond my capability and the time-investment risk / reward calculation doesn’t work for me personally because it would take me hours of struggle to get to launch. Fillmore is a logistics problem and their doesn’t seem to be much interest, so I’m considering Logan’s idea…

You can also likely launch from SB and stay on the front range toward El Cap

Edward is recommending launching at Sylmar, but that also is too much of a time investment for me…

My recommendation for the 29 year old pilots is to follow Mitch
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8:30-ish update
Mark Pratt called and said it looks good in Fillmore. Currently plenty of sun, with cloudbase about 4500, so I’ll go to Fillmore if I can muster logistics, if not, then maybe SB...
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